000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010140 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Nov 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 10N89W to 08N95W to 1008 mb low pressure near 11N106W to 1010 mb low pressure near 12N123W to 09N130W to 09N135W. The ITCZ continues from 09N135W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection can be found from 09N to 14N between 105W and 107W, from 10N to 13N between 115W and 120W, from 12N to 15N between 120W and 124W, and from 08N to 10N W of 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The significant swell event affecting the coast of Baja California the past few days continues to decay. The most recent altimeter passes indicate seas of 5 to 7 ft across the offshore waters. Seas will continue to subside to the range of 4-5 ft tonight. The pressure gradient associated with a weak ridge extending into the offshore waters of Baja California will produce light to gentle NW winds through Friday. The next gap wind event through Isthmus of Tehuantepec region is forecast beginning on Friday, with strong northerly winds expected to surge out across the Gulf of Tehuantepec as high pressure slides eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Presently, the model guidance indicates that these winds may reach minimal gale force during the overnight and early morning hours Friday night through Sunday night. Wave model guidance shows seas building up to around 11 or 12 ft with the strongest winds. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate winds are expected across the gulf through Saturday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Pulsing winds of 15 to 20 kt are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 88W at night, with seas building to 5 or 6 ft. Elsewhere, light westerly winds N of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate S to SW winds S of the monsoon trough, with seas generally 4 to 6 ft, are expected to persist through Saturday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The NW swell event from the past few days continues to propagate through the forecast waters reaching the Galapagos Islands. This swell event is still supporting seas of 8-9 ft across the south waters, mainly S of a line from 00N127W to 12N108W to 05N95W to 03.4S105W. As the swell energy decays into Thursday, expect for these seas to subside to 6-8 ft at that time. Seas below 8 ft are expected across the entire forecast area on early Friday. A weak cold front is forecast to reach the NW corner of the forecast area on Wednesday night, then move slowly southeastward through Friday with little impact in winds and seas. Global model guidance suggests that broad strong high pressure will build southeastward over the NW waters Friday night and Saturday, pushing the front eastward. At that time, guidance is consistently depicting fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front and building seas of 12-14 ft in long period NW swell. In the tropics, a series of weak low pressure systems will linger along the monsoon trough region as mentioned above. Although tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days, the western most one analyzed near 12N123W is forecast to move in a generally northwesterly direction through Friday before weakening to a trough late Friday and Saturday. $$ GR