000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310213 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Oct 31 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N93W to a second 1011 mb low pressure near 13N104W to 11N112W to a third 1010 mb low pressure near 12N122W to 10N129W. The ITCZ continues from 10N129W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 15N between 100W and 105W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N to 14N between 118W and 125W, and within about 90 nm south of the ITCZ between 130W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The significant swell event, that was affecting the coast of Baja California during the previous days, continues to decay, and seas have subside to 6 to 8 ft. Conditions will continue to improve tonight, with seas of 4 to 6 ft by Tuesday night. A weak ridge extending into the offshore waters of Baja California will produce light to gentle NW winds through the week. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gentle to moderate winds are expected in the Teahuantepec region through Thursday. The next gap wind event across this gulf is forecast to begin Thursday night. Strong to minimal gale force northerly winds are expected during the overnight and early morning hours, with the assistence of the nocturnal drainage flow, during the upcoming weekend. Gulf of California: Fresh to locally strong S to SW are noted per an ASCAT pass over the northern Gulf of California on the SE of a low located over the region. These winds are forecast to persist through early Tuesday morning. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds are expected across the gulf through Saturday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A small low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of Guatemala is producing limited showers and thunderstorms while drifting west-northwestward. Development of this system is not anticipated due to proximity of dry, stable air. Latest scatterometer data indicated moderate to fresh winds on the NE quadrant of the low. Elsewhere, expect light westerly winds N of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough, with seas generally running between 4 to 6 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The NW swell event that has been affecting the forecast waters, continues to propagate SE across the forecast waters W of about 100W, supporting seas of 7 to 9 ft. Seas are subsiding across the north waters, mainly N of 20N W of 120W while seas of 8 to 9 ft dominate most of the waters S of 20N W of 110W. Seas will continue to subside on Tuesday across the north waters. The swell in the southern waters will continue to decay as well and allow seas in this area to diminish below 8 ft by Thursday night. A ridge resides over the forecast waters N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, supporting a gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow. This ridge will remain in place through Wednesday. A weak cold front is expected to reach the NW corner of the forecast area on Wednesday night, but will produce little impact in either winds or seas. The front is forecast to move slowly SE across the NW waters through Friday. Weak high pressure in the wake of the front will be re-inforcing by a stronger high pressure Friday night into Saturday pushing the front to a position from 30N130W to 23N140W by early Saturday morning. At that time, expect fresh to strong winds behind the front and building seas of 12 to 13 ft with long period NW swell. $$ GR