000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302127 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Oct 30 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The significant swell event currently producing heavy surf conditions has peaked but continues in the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The leading edge of the swell train, with periods of 19 to 22 seconds, has passed the Revillagigedo Islands, with seas of 7 to 9 ft. This swell event will maintain large breaking waves along the coast of Baja California Peninsula the rest of today. Some of the swell energy is also refracting into the southern Gulf of California today with seas to 5 ft near the Gulf entrance. Conditions will begin to improve this evening, with seas of 4 to 6 ft by Tuesday night. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N92W to 09N97W to 1011 mb low pressure near 12N104W to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N121W to 09N125W to 10N133W, where it transitions to the ITCZ, which continues to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 17N between 100W and 104W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 13N between 118W and 125W, and from 09N to 11N between 125W and 133W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Significant swell event: please refer to the Special Features section above for information on swell affecting the Pacific coast of Mexico through today. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds have diminished to 20 kt or less over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin Friday through early next week. Strong to minimal gale force winds are expected during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistence of the nocturnal drainage flow. Gulf of California: A low pressure located near California/ Arizona border is producing fresh to occasionally strong S to SW winds over the northern Gulf of California, mainly N of 29.5N based on an ASCAT pass. Thse winds are forecast to diminish tonight to 20 kt or less. Otherwise, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected through Friday night. A weak ridge extending into the offshore waters of Baja California will produce light to gentle NW winds through the week. Seas of 7 to 9 ft today will subside to 4 to 6 ft by Tuesday night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A small low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of Guatemala is producing limited showers and thunderstorms while drifting west-northwestward. Development of this system is not anticipated due to proximity of dry, stable air. Elsewhere, expect light westerly winds N of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough, with seas generally running between 4 to 6 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A NW swell event supporting seas of 7 to 9 ft continues to propagate SE across the forecast waters W of about 110W. Swells in this area will continue decay, allowing the areal coverage of 8 ft seas to decrease and become confined south of the monsoon trough by Tuesday morning. The swell in the southern waters will continue to decay as well and allow seas in this area to diminish below 8 ft by Thursday night. A ridge resides over the forecast waters N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, supporting a gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow. This ridge will remain in place through Wednesday. A weak cold front is expected to reach the NW corner of the forecast area on Wednesday night, but will produce little impact in either winds or seas. The front is forecast to move slowly SE across the NW waters through Friday. $$ GR