000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301506 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1505 UTC Mon Oct 30 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The significant swell event currently producing heavy surf conditions has peaked but continues in the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The leading edge of the swell train, with periods of 19 to 22 seconds, has passed the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula and the Revillagigedo Islands, with seas of 7 to 9 ft. This swell will maintain large breaking waves along the coast of Baja California Peninsula today. Some of the swell energy is also refracting into the southern Gulf of California today with seas to 5 ft near the Gulf entrance. Conditions will begin to improve this evening, with seas of 5 to 6 ft by Tuesday morning. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 1010 mb low pressure centered near 11N91W to 12N105W to 09N125W to 10N133W, where it transitions to the ITCZ, which continues to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 08N to 13N between 117W and 136W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of either side of the monsoon trough axis between 100W and 117W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Significant swell event: please refer to the Special Features section above for information on swell affecting the Pacific coast of Mexico through today. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are forecast to diminish to 20 kt or less by this afternoon as Gulf of Mexico high pressure slides eastward. Strong to near gale force winds could affect the Gulf of Tehuantepec from Friday night through early next week. Gulf of California: Developing low pressure over SE California and surface troughing over Baja California Norte will generate fresh to occasionally strong S to SW winds over the gulf waters N of 29.5N this afternoon through much of tonight. Otherwise, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected through Friday night. A weak ridge extending into the offshore waters of Baja California will produce light to gentle NW winds through the week. Seas of 7 to 9 ft today will subside to between 4 and 6 ft by Wednesday, lasting into the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A small area of low pressure centered about 150 miles south of the coast of Guatemala has very little convection associated with it. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next several days as it moves westward to west- northwestward. Elsewhere, expect light westerly winds N of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough, with seas generally running between 4 to 6 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A NW swell event supporting seas of 7 to 9 ft continues in the forecast waters W of about 112W. Swells in this area will continue to propagate SE but will continue to decay, allowing the areal coverage of 8 ft seas to decrease and become confined south of the monsoon trough by Tuesday morning. The swell in the southern waters will continue to decay as well and allow seas in this area to diminish below 8 ft by Thursday night. A ridge resides over the forecast waters N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, supporting a gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow. This ridge will continue to support these tranquil winds over this area through Wednesday. A weak cold front is expected to reach the NW corner of the forecast area on Wednesday night, but produce little impact in either winds or seas. The front is forecast to move slowly SE across the NW waters and weaken through Friday. $$ Latto