000 AXPZ20 KNHC 282127 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2115 UTC Sat Oct 28 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong N-NE winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase to minimal gale force this evening as a strong high pressure ridge extends southward along the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains of Mexico. These gale force winds are forecast to continue through late Sunday morning, then gradually diminish back down to strong N-NE winds by early on Monday, and to fresh NE winds Monday afternoon as the high pressure weakens and slides eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy Surf Conditions: Swells of 8 to 11 ft, with periods of 20 to 24 Sec., are forecast to reach the Pacific coast of the Baja Peninsula tonight, then reach the Pacific coast of Mexico as far S as 19N by late Sunday night. Expect for the swell energy to bring breaking waves that could induce hazardous near shore conditions through late Monday. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 14N92W to 14N101W to 09N110W to 11N133W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 16N E of 100W, and from 06N to 09N between 106W and 115W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Heavy Surf Conditions: please refer to the special features section above for information on heavy seas arriving on the Pacific coast of Mexico into early next week. Gulf of Tehuantepec: please refer to the special features section above for information on the gale event. Gulf of California: Light and variable winds through Sunday will increase to moderate to locally fresh and southerly over the gulf N of 28N Monday through Tuesday. A surface ridge extending southeastward from a 1020 mb high center located at 26N133W to near the Revillagigedo Islands will maintain a gentle to moderate NW breeze along the Pacific coast of Baja California through Monday night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Post Tropical Cyclone Selma is dissipating inland near 14.3N 88.8W. Strong winds are diminishing over the forecast waters associated with Selma, and seas will be subsiding below 8 ft by later this evening. Although Selma is dissipating, heavy rainfall will remain over much of the offshore waters and inland over southern Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras through Sunday. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft will prevail over the waters through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1020 mb high center analyzed at 26N133W has a ridge axis that extends southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands and dominates the waters N of 15N and W of 120W. The high center will gradually shift northward through Sunday. This pattern will support mainly gentle to moderate winds over these waters through early next week. S of 15N expect mainly moderate winds with occasional fresh SW winds to the south of the monsoon trough. Long-period NW swell is producing seas in the range of 8-12 ft over the NW waters this evening. This swell will spread to cover the waters NW of a line from 21N115W to 01N140W by Sunday afternoon, then across most of the waters W of 115W by Sunday night. Conditions will gradually improve over the northern waters Monday into Tuesday as the large swell becomes confined to the southern waters. The swell over the southern waters will diminish below 8 ft by midweek. $$ Latto