000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261530 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1530 UTC Thu Oct 26 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Winds are expected to diminish through this morning, falling below gale force by early this afternoon, then to 20 kt or less Friday. Large NE swell generated from this event continues to propagate S and mix with long period cross- equatorial southerly swell, with a plume of seas 12 ft or greater forecast to reach as far S as 05N between 93W and 101W through the afternoon. Seas will improve tonight. The next gale force gap wind event is expected on Saturday. Possible Tropical Cyclone Formation: Low pressure is developing off the coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. This low is forecast to move northwestward through the upcoming weekend, with a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Regardless of how much the system develops, heavy rainfall is expected across Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guatemala over the next few days. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N85W to a 1009 mb low pressure near 11N87W to 08N100W to 10N110W to a 1009 mb low pressure near 08N134W to 08N138W, where the ITCZ begins and continues beyond 08N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection are from 06N to 13N between 85W and 98W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 13N between 102W and 118W, and from 05N to 13N between 125W and 138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: please see the special features section above for information on the latest gale event. Elsewhere, winds will remain at 20 kt or less with seas 8 ft or less through Saturday night when the next set of NW swell propagates into the offshore waters off the coast of Baja California Norte. Seas will peak near 10 ft on Sunday. The swell will spread southeast, with seas 8 ft or greater covering the entire length of the offshore waters off the Baja California peninsula by Sunday night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Low pressure developing near 11N87W is discussed in the special features section. Combined swell from this feature and the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale will support seas of 8 to 12 ft north of about 07N through Friday night. The area of 8 ft or greater seas will become confined north of 10N by Saturday night. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft will prevail the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge dominates the EPAC waters N of 15N W of 115W accompanied by gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow, and combined seas of 5 to 8 ft, in mixing cross-equatorial southerly swell and long period NW swell. Any lingering 8 ft seas will diminish later today. A fresh set of long- period NW swell will move into the northwest waters Friday. Seas will peak near 14 ft late Friday night into Saturday morning. The swell will propagate southeast, with seas 8 ft or greater covering the much of the forecast waters west of 115W by Sunday night. $$ Latto