000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140234
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0229 UTC Sat Oct 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Low pres of 1006 mb is centered near 12N112W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 108W and 
118W. There is a medium probability that this low will develop 
into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. Please refer to
the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. 

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N92W to 1006 mb low 
pressure near 12N112W to 11N119W to 11N137W. The ITCZ extends 
from 11N137W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 81W and 85W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to 15N
between 108W and 118W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough between 124W and 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the waters off Baja California. 
The pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough over the 
Gulf of California is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds in 
the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail
over the offshore waters west of the Baja California peninsula, 
with northerly swell just pushing into the waters north of 26N 
and west of 118W raising seas to 7 to 9 ft. The ridge will 
remain in place through Saturday will little change in winds. By 
Saturday evening, seas of 5-7 ft will prevail across most of the 
offshore waters W of 110W. 

High pressure across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre
Mountains in Mexico continues to induce strong northerly gap 
winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The strong winds over the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse to near gale force during the 
overnight and early morning hours the next couple of days. Winds
will further increase to minimal gale force Monday night through
early Wednesday morning as high pressure builds behind a front 
moving into the Gulf of Mexico. Seas downstream from the gulf 
will build to 8-11 ft during the times of maximum winds through 
Monday. Maximum seas of 12-14 ft are expected with the gale force
winds. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
    
Moderate to fresh offshore winds will develop across the Papagayo
region Sat and continue through Mon with seas of 5-6 ft. Light 
and variable winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft seas prevail N of 09N, 
with little change expected through Saturday morning. Seas will 
increase slightly through the weekend as cross-equatorial SW 
swell reaches the region. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds and 5 
to 6 ft seas are currently observed across the area S of 09N, 
with a slight increase in seas expected through the weekend with 
the arrival of SW swell. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see special features section above for more information 
on low pressure centered near 12N112W. Elsewhere, high pressure 
of 1041 mb centered NW of the area near 42N145W extends a ridge 
southeast to near 23N115W. The pressure gradient between the 
ridge and the monsoon trough is producing an area of fresh to 
strong NE winds northwest of a line from 30N123W to 20N140W, 
with seas of 8-11 ft. Winds are forecast to diminish across the 
northern forecast waters on Saturday as high pressure weakens and
the resulting pressure gradient loosens. Seas will gradually 
subside, but 8-9 ft seas will continue to affect much of the area
N of 20N W of 120W by Sat evening. Cross equatorial swell will 
continue to propagate across the waters S of 15N between 105W- 
115W during the next couple of days. 

$$
AL