000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130200
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Oct 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0200 UTC.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N90W to 09N98W to 
13N108W to 12N120W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 104W and 
115W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm north 
of the monsoon trough between 125W and 129W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the waters off Baja California. 
The pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough over the 
Gulf of California is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds in 
the offshore waters of Baja California, with seas 4 to 6 ft in 
northerly swell. The ridge will remain in place through Saturday 
will little change in winds. NW swell will gradually build seas 
to 5-8 ft across the waters W of 110W by Friday evening, then 
slowly subside Saturday through Sunday. 

High pressure across eastern Mexico continues to induce strong 
northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The strong 
winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse to near gale force 
during the overnight and early morning hours the next few days.
Model guidance indicates winds will increase to minimal gale 
force Monday night through Tuesday night as high pressure builds 
behind a front moving into the Gulf of Mexico. Seas downstream 
from the gulf will remain 6-8 ft through the weekend, building 
to 9-10 ft during the times of maximum winds. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
    
Light and variable winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft seas prevail N of 
09N, with little change expected through Saturday morning. Seas 
will increase slightly through the weekend as cross-equatorial 
SW swell reaches the region. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds 
and 5 to 6 ft seas are currently observed across the area S of 
09N, with a slight increase in seas expected through the weekend 
with the arrival of SW swell. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Unusually strong high pressure centered NNW of the area near 
44N147W extends a ridge southeast to near 24N115W. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and monsoon trough is producing fresh 
to occasionally strong trade winds north of 25N west of 125W, 
with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough. Seas across the northern part of the area are 8 to 11 ft 
in mixed NW swell. The swell will spread southward through the 
period, with seas of 8 to 10 ft northwest of a line from 30N119W 
to 13N140W expected by Saturday. 

$$
Mundell