000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122125
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Oct 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to 09N95W to 13N106W to 
12N122W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 104W and 115W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm north of the 
monsoon trough between 122W and 138W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the waters off Baja California. 
The pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough over the
Gulf of California is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds 
across the offshore waters of Baja California, with seas in the 
4 to 6 ft range in mixed northerly swell. The ridge will remain 
in place across the offshore waters through Saturday will little 
change in winds. NW swell will gradually build seas to 5-8 ft 
across the waters W of 110W by Friday evening, then subside 
slowly Saturday through Sunday. 

High pressure across eastern Mexico continues to induce strong 
northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The strong 
winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse to near gale force 
during the overnight and early morning hours the next few days. 
Seas downstream from the gulf will remain 6-8 ft through the 
weekend, building to 9-10 ft during the time of maximum winds. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
    
Light and variable winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft seas prevail N of 
09N, with little change expected through Saturday morning. Seas 
will increase slightly through the weekend as cross-equatorial 
SW swell reaches the region. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds 
and 5 to 6 ft seas are currently observed across the area S of 
09N, with a slight increase in seas expected through the weekend 
with the arrival of SW swell. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Unusually strong high pressure centered NNW of the area near 
44N147W extends a ridge southeast to near 24N115W. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and monsoon trough is producing fresh 
to occasionally strong trade winds north of 25N west of 125W, 
with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough. Seas across the northern part of the area are 8 to 11 ft 
in mixed NW swell. The swell will spread southward through the 
period, with seas of 8 to 10 ft northwest of a line from 30N119W 
to 13N140W expected by Saturday. 

$$
Mundell