000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120948 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Oct 12 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0815 UTC. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from NW Colombia near 09N72W TO 10N94W TO low pressure near 12N122W 1009 MB TO 10N128W TO 10N136W. The ITCZ continues from 10N136W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 06.5N to 10N between 98W and 113W, and within 180 nm N and 120 NM S of the monsoon trough between 101W and 136W. Scattered moderate to strong nocturnal convection continues within 120 nm of the Mexican coast from the Gulf of Tehuantepec to beyond Cabo Corrientes to the extreme southern coastal waters of Sinaloa. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from strong high pressure across the NE Pacific through 32N132W to 21N116W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and Baja California remains modest tonight and is producing gentle to moderate NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja. Seas there are presently 4 to 6 ft in mixed northerly swell. The ridge will remain generally in place across the offshore waters through Saturday will little appreciable change in winds. A new pulse of NW swell will begin to move into the northern waters early this morning and gradually build seas to 5-8 ft N of 25N by around sunset today, and 5-8 ft across all waters W of 110W by Friday evening before subsiding slowly Saturday through Sunday. Gentle to light NW to W winds will generally prevail across the Gulf of California through the weekend and be dominated by sea breezes during the afternoon through evening hours. High pressure building across the NW Gulf of Mexico is nosing southward across eastern Mexico, and has induced strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight. Expect N to NE winds of 20-25 knots to prevail through the next few days and maximize to around 30 knots during the early morning hours. Seas across and downstream of the gulf are expected to remain 6-8 ft through the weekend and build to 9-10 ft during the time of maximum winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft seas prevail across the waters N of 09N tonight with little change expected through Saturday morning. Seas will increase slightly to around 5 to 6 ft through the weekend as a new round of cross equatorial SW swell reaches the region. Saturday through Sunday look for moderate to fresh offshore flow to return to the Papgayo region. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds, and 5 to 6 ft seas are currently observed across the area S of 09N, with a slight increase in seas expected through the weekend with this new pulse of SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The large ridge across the regional waters will build S and SE across the waters W of 120W during the next few days and act to freshen winds across the N and NW waters N of 24N. Seas across the waters N of 26N and W of 125W are currently 8 to 11 ft in mixed NW swell and will build to 9-12 ft by late tonight as the NW swell increases and strong NE winds of 20-25 kt spread across these waters. The building ridge will also tighten the pressure gradient N of the monsoon trough, and increase winds to 15-20 kt and gusty across the trade wind belt from 12N to 22N W of 120W. Seas of 6 to 9 ft will prevail across this region through the weekend. $$ Stripling