000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112205
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Oct 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Costa Rica 
near 10N86W, to 10N95W, to a 1010 mb low pressure center that is 
near 14N108W, to a second 1010 mb low pressure center that is 
near 13N119W, to 10N130W, to 12N140W. Convective precipitation: 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 07N to 10N between 
110W and 120W, from 07N to 09N between 114W and 117, and from 
13N to 17N between 110W and 113W. isolated moderate to locally 
strong from 06N to 09N between 82W and 85W, within 240 nm to the 
north of the monsoon trough between 95W and 107W, within 240 nm 
to the south of the monsoon trough between 90W and 100W, within 
240 nm to the south of the monsoon trough from 114W westward, 
and within 180 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 
120W and 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 22N114W to 22N126W, beyond 32N138W.
The latest satellite-derived wind data indicate moderate NW to N 
winds prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California east 
of 118W, and also in the northern half of the Gulf of 
California. Sea heights of 5 to 7 feet are in NW swell that is 
moving through the area that is from 20N northward. Sea heights 
of 3 to 5 feet are between Cabo Corrientes and the entrance to 
the Gulf of California. This swell will continue to subside 
throughout the early morning hours, with seas becoming 4 to 6 ft 
by late afternoon. Another pulse of NW swell is N OF 28N BETWEEN 
125W AND 138W, with N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 knots, and sea 
heights reaching 8 and 9 feet. Expect sea heights ranging from 8 
feet to 11 feet N OF LINE FROM 30N118W TO 25N119W TO 18N137W TO 
18N140W during the next few days. Expect: N OF LINE FROM 30N124W 
TO 22N136W TO 22N140W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 11 
FT.

The Gulf of Tehuantepec: Expect N to NE winds from 20 knots to 
30 knots during the next few days, and into the weekend. Expect 
sea heights to range from 8 feet to 10 feet.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
    
Light and variable winds and 4 to 5 ft seas are expected to the 
N of 08N through tonight. Seas will increase slightly to around 5
to 6 ft Thursday through Friday as a new round of cross 
equatorial SW swell reaches the region. Gentle to moderate SW to 
W winds, and 4 to 7 ft seas are currently observed across the 
area S of 08N, except S winds eastward of 84W, with a slight 
increase in seas with this new pulse of SW swell. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Winds less than 20 knots, and 8 foot sea heights are forecast 
from the Equator to 10N between 95W and 110W during day one.
The area will shift westward a bit by the end of day two, from 
the Equator to 10N between 102W and 115W.

$$
mt