000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111004
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Oct 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0815 UTC.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N75W TO 10N89W TO 08N95W TO 
low pres near 13N106W 1008 MB TO low pres near 14N118W 1009 MB 
TO 12N127W. The ITCZ continues from 12N127W to 10N132W to beyond 
10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
observed from 05N TO 08N between 89W and 110W, and from 12N TO 
18N between 94W and 110W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is observed from 19N to 24N E of 106.5W and extending 
well inland of the Mexican coast. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the NE Pacific SE across the waters 
west of the Baja California Peninsula, through 30N138W to 
24N132W to 21N118W. Moderate NW to N winds prevail across the 
offshore waters of Baja California east of 117W, and also 
through the central portions of the Gulf of California as 
depicted by overnight scatterometer data. NW swell moving 
through the regional waters overnight is producing seas of 5 to 
7 ft across the waters N of 22N and 4 to 6 ft between Cabo 
Corrientes and the entrance to the Gulf of California. This 
swell will continue to subside throughout the early morning 
hours, with seas becoming 4 to 6 ft by late afternoon. Another 
pulse of NW swell will propagate into the area early Thursday 
and produce building seas to 6 to 9 feet N of 23N by Friday 
evening.

Fresh northerly winds have begun to spill across the W half of 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec overnight and are expected to increase 
to 20-30 kt by day break today. Seas across and downstream of 
the gulf will increase to 6-8 ft during this time. Strong N to 
NE winds are then expected to persist across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through Saturday morning, and maximize to around 30 
kt during the early morning hours each day. Seas will build to 
10 ft downstream of the gulf waters near 15N95W during the day 
morning hours on Thursday and Friday. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
    
Light and variable winds and 4 to 5 ft seas are expected to the 
N of 08N through tonight and will then increase slightly to 
around 5 ft Thursday through Friday as a new pulse of cross 
equatorial SW swell reaches the region. Gentle to moderate SW to 
W winds, and 4 to 7 ft seas are currently observed across the 
area S of 08N, except S winds eastward of 84W, with a slight 
increase in seas with this new pulse of SW swell. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail north of the monsoon 
trough and west of 120W. Long period NW swell is producing seas 
of 7 to 9 ft in the waters that are from 18N to 30N to the W of 
120W. Seas will subside to 6-7 ft across this area by afternoon 
before the next pulse of long period northerly swell moves south 
of 30N this morning and moves to 25N by Thursday morning. This 
swell will propagate southward, with seas building to 8 to 12 ft 
north of 23N W of 117W early on Friday morning. Strong high 
pressure will build across NW portions of the area tonight 
through Friday and freshen the associated NE to E winds across 
the northwest portions of the area generally N of 24N and W of 
124W.

$$
Stripling