000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102147
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Oct 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough passes through southern Costa Rica near 
09N84W, through 10N88W, to southern Mexico near 16N96W near the 
Isthmus of Tehuantepec, to a 1007 mb low pressure center that is 
near 13N106W, to a 1009 mb low pressure center that is near 
15N117W, to a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 12N125W, 
to 10N136W. The ITCZ continues from 10N136W beyond 11N140W. 
Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
within 180 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 95W and 
100W. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere within 480 
nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 80W and 106W, and 
within 360 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 
132W and 137W.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong within 120 nm NW quadrant 
of the 1007 mb low pressure center that is near 13N106W.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong within 240 nm S quadrant 
of the 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 12N125W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends west of the Baja California Peninsula.
The ridge is along 23N113W 25N123W 27N136W beyond 30N138W. Light 
to gentle NW winds, and 6 to 9 ft seas in NW swell are to the N 
of 23N between 117W and 130W. This swell is expected to subside 
today, with seas of 3 to 6 ft forecast W of Baja on Wed and Wed 
night. Another round of NW swell will propagate into the area 
late on Wednesday, building seas to 7-10 ft N of 24N by Friday.

Strong N winds will develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
during the midnight hours of Wednesday morning. The winds will 
increase more, to nearly 30 knots by early Thu, then continue 
well into the upcoming weekend. Seas will build to 10 ft 
downstream of the gulf waters near 14N96W during the day on 
Thursday. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
    
Light and variable winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are expected to the 
N of 08N through Fri night. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds, 
and 4 to 7 ft seas are currently observed across the area S of 
08N, except S winds eastward of 84W, with little change expected 
through the remainder of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail north of the monsoon 
trough and west of 130W. Long period NW swell is producing seas 
of 8 to 10 ft over the waters north of 24N between 116W and 132W.
This area of seas will subside to less than 8 ft tonight. 
Another set of long period N swell will reach along 30N late 
tonight. This swell will propagate southward, with seas building 
to 8 to 12 ft north of a line from 33N118W to 27N118W to 14N140W 
on Fri.

$$
mt