000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100956
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Oct 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends W from the Caribbean coast of 
Colombia near 10N73.5W TO 09N80W TO 16N97W TO low pres 1009 MB 
near 14N106W TO low pres 1010 MB near 15N116W TO low pres 1010 
MB near 13N125W. The ITCZ continues from 13N127W TO 10N135W TO 
low pres 1009 MB near 11N138W TO beyond 10N140W.

Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 05N to 
08.5N between 79W and 87W, and from 11N to 16N between 87W and 
101W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends SE into the area through 30N136W to 
26N120W. Light to gentle NW winds, and 6 to 9 ft seas in NW 
swell are observed N of 22N W of the Baja Peninsula. This swell 
is expected to propagate S resulting in 6 to 10 ft seas reaching 
along 20N early Tue morning before beginning to subside from the 
N, with seas of 3 to 6 ft forecast W of Baja on Wed and Wed 
night. Another round of NW swell will arrive at 32N120W on Tue 
night and raise seas to 7-10 ft as far S as 23N on Fri. 
   
Strong NW winds continue N of 29.50N across the Gulf of 
California and will continue to gradually subside to a moderate 
NW breeze over the entire gulf this afternoon into Tue night. 
The pressure gradient will abruptly relax and introduce light 
and variable winds throughout the gulf waters on Wed and Thu, 
with the exception that moderate southerly breezes will occur 
over the northern waters on Thu. 

Strong N winds will spill across the Gulf of Tehuantepec late 
tonight and increase to around 30 kt by dawn on Wed, then 
continue well into the upcoming weekend. Expect seas to build to 
10 ft downstream of the gulf waters near 15N95W early Thu 
morning. Long period NW swell will support seas of 5 to 7 ft 
elsewhere across the Mexican waters. The swell are expected to 
gradually subside with 3 to 5 ft seas the result by mid week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
    
Light and variable winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are expected to the 
N of 08N through Fri night. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds, 
and 4 to 7 ft seas are currently observed across the area S of 
08N, except S winds eastward of 84W, with little change expected 
through the remainder of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...A ridge extends into the discussion area 
from 30N136W to 26N120W. Moderate to fresh N winds, and long 
period NW swell resulting in seas of 8 to 12 ft currently affect 
the waters from 25N to 32N between 117W and 136W. Winds will 
subside to between light and gentle as the southern edge of 8 ft 
seas reaches along 22N between 120W and 128W on Tue. This area 
of seas will subside to less than 8 ft on Tue night. Another 
round of fresh to locally strong N winds, and long period N 
swell, will reach along 30N to the W of 124W on Tue night, in 
response to very strong high pressure building S and SE into the 
area. Expect fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and 8 to 12 
ft seas N of a line from 32N118W to 27N118W to 14N140W on Fri.

$$
Stripling