000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100228
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
058 UTC Tue Oct 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends W from the Caribbean coast of 
Colombia at 10N73W over Panama to south of Costa Rica at 08N84W 
to 10N101W to 10N115W. The ITCZ continues from 10N115W to 13N126W
to beyond 10N140W.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed along 
the Pacific coasts of Panama and Costa Rica from 05N to 07N 
between 82W and 86W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
the ITCZ from 08N to 10N between 132W and 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends into the area along 20N to 111W. Light 
NW winds, and 6 to 10 ft seas, primarily in NW swell is observed 
N of 22N W of the Baja Peninsula. This swell is expected to 
propagate S resulting in 6 to 10 ft seas reaching along 20N early
Tue morning before beginning to subside from the N, with seas of
3 to 6 ft forecast W of Baja on Wed and Wed night. Another round
of NW swell will arrive at 32N120W on Tue night and reach as far
S as 23N on Fri. 

Strong to near gale force N winds will arrive over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec around dawn on Wed, then continue well into the 
upcoming weekend. Expect seas to build to 10 ft downstream of 
the gulf waters near 15N95W on Thu morning. Long period NW swell
will support seas of 5 to 7 ft elsewhere across the Mexican 
waters. The swell are expected to gradually subside with 3 to 5 
ft seas the result by mid week.
    
Strong to near gale force NW winds N of 30N will abate tonight 
and Tue morning across the Gulf of California. A moderate NW 
breeze is then expected over the entire gulf from late Tue into 
Tue night. The pressure gradient will abruptly relax and 
introduce light and variable winds throughout the gulf waters on 
Wed and Thu, with the exception that moderate southerly breezes 
will occur over the northern waters on Thu. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
    
Light and variable winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are expected to the 
N of 08N through Fri night. Light SW to W winds, and 4 to 7 ft 
seas are currently observed across the area S of 08N, but winds 
are expected to increase to moderate speeds tonight, with little 
change then expected through the remainder of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...A ridge extends into the discussion area
from 32N134W to 20N111W. Moderate to fresh N winds, and long 
period NW swell resulting in seas of 8 to 11 ft, currently affect
the waters from 25N to 32N between 120W and 135W. Winds will 
subside to between light and gentle as the southern edge of 8 ft 
seas reaches along 22N between 120W and 128W on Tue. This area of
seas will subside to less than 8 ft on Tue night. Another batch 
of fresh to locally strong N winds, and long period N swell, will
reach along 30N to the W of 124W on Tue night. In response to 
very strong high pressure of 1040 mb or more building N of the 
area expect fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and 8 to 12 ft 
seas N of a line from 32N118W to 27N118W to 14N140W on Fri.

$$
CAM