000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092148
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2001 UTC Mon Oct 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends NW from the Caribbean coast of 
Colombia at 09N76W over Panama to Costa Rica at 11N86W, then over
Nicaragua, Honduras and Guatemala to Southern Mexico at 18N96W, 
then turns SW to 14N102W. The monsoon trough turns W to embedded 
1010 mb low pressure systems near 16N106W and 16N116W. The 
monsoon trough then turns SW to 09N130W, then W again to 09N140W.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed along 
the Pacific coasts of Colombia and Panama from 03N to 10N E of 
80W and from 05N to 07N between 81.5W and 85.5W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 15N to
17N between 105W and 107W and within 120 nm either side of the 
monsoon trough axis between 127W and 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends into the area along 20N to 112W. Light 
NW winds, and 6 to 10 ft seas, primarily in NW swell is observed 
N of 23N W of the Baja Peninsula. This swell is expected to 
propagate S resulting in 6 to 10 ft seas reaching along 22N late 
tonight before beginning to subside from the N, with seas of 3 to
6 ft forecast W of Baja on Wed and Wed night. Another round of 
NW swell will arrive at 32N120W on Wed night and reach as far S 
as 26N on Fri. 

Strong to near gale force N winds will arrive over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec around dawn on Wed, then continue well into the 
upcoming weekend. Expect seas to build to 9 ft downstream of the 
gulf waters near 15N95W. Long period NW swell will support seas 
of 5 to 7 ft elsewhere across the Mexican waters. The swell are 
expected to gradually subside with 3 to 5 ft seas resulting by 
mid week.
    
Strong to near gale force NW winds are expected to continue 
through late tonight across the Gulf of California to the N of 
29.5N. A moderate NW breeze is then expected over the entire gulf
from late Tue into Tue night. The pressure gradient will 
abruptly relax and introduce light and variable winds throughout 
the gulf waters on Wed and Thu, with the exception that moderate 
southerly breezes will occur over the northern waters on Thu. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
    
Light and variable winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are expected to the 
N of 08N through Fri night. Light SW to W winds, and 4 to 7 ft 
seas are currently observed across the area S of 08N, but winds 
are expected to increase to moderate speeds tonight, with little 
change then expected through the remainder of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...A ridge extends into the discussion area
from 32N134W to 20N112W. Moderate to fresh N winds, and long 
period NW swell resulting in seas of 8 to 11 ft, currently affect
the waters from 26N to 32N between 120W and 135W. Winds will 
will subside to between light and gentle as the southern edge of 
8 ft seas reaches along 22N between 120W and 128W on Tue. This 
area of seas will subside to less than 8 ft on Tue night. Another
batch of fresh to locally strong N winds, and long period N 
swell, will reach along 30N to the W of 124W on Tue night. Fresh 
to locally strong NE to E winds and 8 to 12 ft seas are expected 
N of a line from 32N118W to 27N118W to 14N140W on Fri.

$$
CAM