000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091001 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Oct 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends NW from the Caribbean coast of Colombia near 10N75W TO 08.5N80W TO 16N95W TO low pres 1010 MB near 16N116W TO 08.5N130W TO beyond 09.5N140W. There is no significant convection currently associated with the monsoon trough. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends SE into the area through 32N134W to 21N118W. Moderate NW winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed NW swell are observed across the offshore waters of Baja California S of 28N. N of 28N, the leading edge of new pulse of long-period NW swell is raising seas 7 to 9 ft. This swell will propagating S and SE, resulting in 6 to 10 ft seas affecting all of the waters west of Baja by Tue afternoon. Seas will peak near 10 ft in the western portion of the northernmost zone PMZ011 before beginning to subside. Seas of 4 to 7 ft are forecast W of Baja on Tue night and Wed. The leading edge of another round of NW swell will reach the northern waters Tue night. Long period SW swell is maintaining seas of 5 to 7 ft across the Mexican waters S of 16N. Expect these seas to subside to 4 to 6 ft today, then to between 3 and 5 ft Tue and Wed. Fresh S to SW winds are occurring N of 29.5N in the Gulf of California early this morning ahead of a weak cold front sweeping S across Southern California. This front is expected to move through the gulf waters N of 25N this morning through Tue morning. Strong to near gale force NW winds will follow the front across the waters N of 29.5N by around sunrise this morning, and then gradually diminishing to a fresh NW breeze late tonight into early Tue. Seas will quickly build 6-9 ft across far N portions of the Gulf by noon. A moderate NW breeze is expected across the entire gulf waters late Tue into Tue night when the pressure gradient will abruptly relax, resulting in light and variable winds basin wide by Wed afternoon. Strong N winds will begin across the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Tue night, then continue through Thu night as a cold front moves across W portions of the Gulf of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle SW to W winds, and 4 to 6 ft seas are currently observed across the area. This monsoonal flow will increase to a moderate today, with little change then expected through mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA...A ridge extends S and SE into the discussion area W of 118W, with the resultant pressure gradient producing moderate NE trade winds S of 20N and W of 122W. Fresh N winds, and long period NW swell resulting in seas of 7 to 10 ft, currently across the waters from 25N to 32N between 120W and 130W, will propagate S to along 21N between 116W and 132W on Tue before beginning to subside. Another pulse of fresh to locally strong N winds, and long period N swell, will reach along 29N to the W of 124W on Tue night. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and 8 to 12 ft seas are expected N of a line from 32N120W to 26N140W by Thu morning as strong high pressure builds across N portions of the area. $$ Stripling