000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090233
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 UTC Mon Oct 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends WNW from the Caribbean coast of 
Colombia at 09N74W over Panama to 09N80W to extreme SE Mexico 
near 15N92W to 1010 mb low pressure near 15N106W to 1011 mb low 
pressure near 16N115W to 10N127W to 1010 mb low pressure near 
10N137W to beyond 10N140W. There is no significant convection 
currently associated with the monsoon trough.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends east into the area along 20N to 114W. 
Moderate NW winds, and 5 to 7 ft seas, in a mix of SW to W and NW
swell, is observed S of 26N on the west side of the Baja 
Peninsula. The leading edge of a batch of long-period NW swell is
passing 27N119W as seas build above 8 ft. This swell is expected
to continue propagating SE, resulting in 6 to 10 ft seas 
affecting all of the waters west of Baja by Tue afternoon. Seas 
will peak near 10 ft in the western portion of the northernmost 
zone PMZ011 before beginning to subside. Seas of 4 to 7 ft are 
forecast W of Baja on Tue night and Wed. The leading edge of 
another round of NW swell will arrive at 32N120W on Tue night. 

Long period SW swell is maintaining seas of 5 to 7 ft across the 
Mexican waters S of 16N. Expect these seas to subside to 4 to 6 
ft on Mon, then to between 3 and 5 ft Tue and Wed.
    
Fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected N of 29.5N this 
evening ahead of a weak cold front sweeping through the gulf 
waters N of 25N Mon morning through Tue morning. Strong to near 
gale force NW winds will follow the front across the waters N of 
30.5N tonight, pushing S to 29.5N on Mon morning, and then 
quickly diminishing to a fresh NW breeze late Mon night into 
early Tue. A moderate NW breeze is expected across the entire 
gulf waters late Tue into Tue night when the pressure gradient 
will abruptly relax, resulting in light and variable winds basin 
wide by Wed afternoon.

Strong N winds will begin across the Gulf of Tehuantepec late
Tue night, then continue through Thu night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
    
Light SW to W winds, and 4 to 7 ft seas are currently observed 
across the area. This southerly flow will increase to a moderate 
SW to W breeze on Mon, with little change then expected through
mid week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...A ridge extends into the discussion area 
from 32N135W to 20N114W. Fresh N winds, and long period NW swell
resulting in seas of 7 to 10 ft, currently across the waters 
from 25N to 32N between 120W and 135W, will propagate S to along 
21N between 116W and 132W on Tue before beginning to subside. 
Another batch of fresh to locally strong N winds, and long period
N swell, will reach along 29N to the W of 124W on Tue night. 
Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and 8 to 12 ft seas are 
expected N of a line from 32N120W to 26N140W Thu morning.

$$
CAM