000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082153
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2017 UTC Sun Oct 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends WNW from the Caribbean coast of 
Colombia at 08N75W over Panama and Costa Rica to 13N89W to south 
of Mexico near 16N101W, then undulates W through embedded 1010 mb
low pressure systems near 15N107W and 17N114W. The monsoon 
trough then turns SW to 10N125W, then W again through 1010 mb low
pressure near 10N134W to beyond 10N140W. 

Scattered moderate convection is observed from 12N to 14N between
104W and 106W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends east into the area along 20N to 115W. 
Moderate NW winds, and 5 to 7 ft seas, in a mix of SW to W and NW
swell, is observed S of 30N on the west side of the Baja 
Peninsula. The leading edge of a batch of long-period NW swell is
passing 28N119W as seas build above 8 ft. This swell is expected
to propagate SE resulting in 6 to 10 ft seas affecting all of 
the waters west of Baja by Tue afternoon. Seas will peak near 10 
ft in zone PMZ011 before beginning to subside. Seas of 4 to 7 ft 
are forecast W of Baja on Tue night into Wed. Another round of NW
swell will arrive at 32N120W on Tue night. 

Long period SW swell is maintaining seas of 5 to 7 ft across the 
Mexican waters S of 16N. Expect these seas to subside to 4 to 6 
ft on Mon, then to between 3 and 5 ft Tue and Wed.
    
A moderate to fresh SE to S breeze is setting up across the Gulf
of California waters N of 29N. Expect fresh to strong southerly 
flow N of 29.5N this evening ahead of a weak cold front sweeping 
through the gulf waters N of 25N through early Tue. Strong to 
near gale force NW winds will follow the front across the waters 
N of 30.5N tonight, reaching along 29.5N on Mon morning, and then
quickly diminishing to a fresh NW breeze late Mon night into 
early Tue. A moderate NW breeze is expected across the entire 
gulf waters late Tue into Tue night when the pressure gradient 
will abruptly relax, resulting in light and variable winds basin 
wide on Wed.

Strong N winds will begin across the Gulf of Tehuantepec late
Tue night and continue through Thu night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
    
Light SW to W winds, and 4 to 7 ft seas are currently observed 
across the area. This southerly flow will increase to a moderate 
SW to W breeze on Mon, with little change then expected through
mid week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...A ridge extends into the discussion area 
from 32N135W to 20N115W. Fresh N winds, and long period NW swell
resulting in seas of 7 to 10 ft, currently across the waters 
from 25N to 32N between 120W and 135W, will propagate S to along
21N between 116W and 132W on Tue before beginning to subside. 
Another batch of fresh to locally strong N winds, and long period
N swell, will reach along 30N to the W of 124W on Tue night. 
Fresh to locally strong NE winds and 8 to 12 ft seas are expected
N of a line from 32N120W to 26N140W Thu morning.

$$
CAM