000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080235 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 035 UTC Sun Oct 8 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from NW Colombia near 08N75W over Panama and Nicaragua to low pres 1010 mb centered just south of Guatemala near 13N92W to 12N100W to low pres 1007 mb centered near 13N108W to 10N123W to low pres 1011 mb centered near 11N137W to 12N140W. There is no significant convection currently associated with the monsoon trough. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends SE from 32N135W to SW of Cabo San Lucas near 19N113W. Moderate NW winds, and 5 to 7 ft seas, in a mix of SW and NW swell, is forecast W of the Baja Peninsula tonight. The leading edge of a batch of long-period NW swell will arrive at 32N120W late tonight in the form of 8 to 11 ft seas. This NW swell, resulting in seas of 6 to 9 ft, will propagate S to near 24N by Mon night before beginning to subside. Seas of 4 to 7 ft are then forecast W of Baja by Tue night. Long period SW swell are maintaining seas of 7 to 9 ft across the Mexican waters S of 18N. Expect these seas to subside to between 5 and 7 ft by late Sun. Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh NW winds covering the entire basin will diminish to light and variable by dawn on Sunday. A moderate SE to S breeze will set up over the waters N of 29N Sun morning, and then steadily increase. Fresh to strong southerly flow is forecast N of 29.5N by Sun evening ahead of a weak cold front sweeping through the waters N of 26N on Mon night. Strong NW winds will follow the front across the waters N of 30.5N Sun night, reaching as far south as 29N on Mon morning. Seas in this area are expected to peak around 8 ft. Winds will quickly diminish to a fresh NW breeze late Mon night. A light to moderate NW breeze is expected across the entire gulf waters by late Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southerly winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft in long period SW swell are observed N of 07N and W of 86W. These seas are forecast to subside to 5 to 7 ft by Sunday evening. Light SW to W winds and 5 to 7 ft seas elsewhere will become light SW to W winds and 3 to 5 ft seas respectively by late Sun. The southerly flow will increase to a moderate SW breeze across the waters S of 07N Mon through Wed night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends into the discussion area from 32N135W to 19N113W. Light to moderate trades generally prevail between the ridge and monsoon trough. A batch of long period NW swell is beginning to enter the waters N of 29N between 121W and 128W. Strong N winds and 12 ft seas will reach along 32N between 120W and 128W late tonight, then diminish to a fresh breeze on Sun night. However, the NW swell in the form of 8 to 11 ft seas will continue propagating farther S across the waters to N of 27N between 119W and 133W on Sun night. Fresh NE trades and 6 to 8 ft seas are forecast from 09N to 15N W of 136W in association with weak low pres embedded in the monsoon trough on Sun and Mon. Forecast calls for 8 ft seas across the waters N of 22N between 116W and 130W on Tue morning. Seas in this area will subside to less than 8 ft on Tue night. By then, yet another batch of long period N swell will propagate southward across 30N to the W of 124W. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are expected N of 29N W of 122W on Wed. $$ CAM