000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072151 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2003 UTC Sat Oct 7 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends NW from Panama over Costa Rica to low pres 1009 mb centered just south of Guatemala near 13N92W to just SW of Manzanillo Mexico near 19N106W. The trough then turns SW to 14N113W to 10N122W, then WNW to low pres 1010 mb centered near 12N137W and finally west to 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 180 nm of the coast of Mexico between 100W and 106W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends SE from 32N134W to W of Cabo San Lucas near 22N116W. Moderate NW winds, and 5 to 7 ft seas, in a mix of SW and NW swell, is forecast W of the Baja Peninsula tonight. The leading edge of a batch of long-period NW swell will arrive at 32N120W late tonight in the form of 8 to 11 ft seas. This NW swell, resulting in seas of 6 to 9 ft, will propagate S to near 24N by Mon night before beginning to subside. Seas of 4 to 7 ft are then forecast W of Baja by Tue night. Long period SW swell are maintaining seas of 7 to 9 ft across the Mexican waters S of 14N. Expect these seas to subside to between 5 and 7 ft by late Sun. Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh NW winds covering the entire basin will diminish to a moderate breeze tonight, then further diminish to light and variable tonight. A moderate SE to S breeze will set up over the waters N of 29N early Sun, and then steadily increase. Fresh to strong southerly flow is forecast N of 29.5N by Sun evening ahead of a weak cold front sweeping through the waters N of 26N on Mon night. Strong NW winds will follow the front across the waters N of 30.5N Sun night, reaching as far south as 29.5N on Mon morning. Seas in this area are expected to peak around 8 ft. Winds will quickly diminish to a fresh NW breeze late Mon night. A light to moderate NW breeze is expected across the entire gulf waters by late Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southerly winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft in long period SW swell are observed N of 07N and W of 86W. These seas are forecast to subside to 5 to 7 ft tonight. Light SW to W winds, and 5 to 7 ft seas are observed elsewhere. Expect light SW to W winds and 3 to 5 ft seas by late Sun. The southerly flow will increase to a moderate SW breeze across the waters S of 07N Mon through Wed night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends into the discussion area from 32N134W to 22N116W. Moderate E to SE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are noted S of the ridge from 24N to 32N W of 137W. These seas will subside to less than 8 ft this evening as another batch of long period NW swell propagates into the waters farther east to the N of 30N between 124W and 128W. Strong N winds and 12 ft seas will reach along 32N between 120W and 128W late tonight, then diminish to a fresh breeze on Sun night. However, the NW swell in the form of 8 to 11 ft seas will propagate S across the waters N of 27N between 119W and 133W on Sun night. Fresh NE trades and 6 to 8 ft seas are forecast from 09N to 15N W of 136W on Sun and Mon. Forecast calls for 8 ft seas across the waters N of 22N between 116W and 130W on Tue morning. Seas in this area will subside to less than 8 ft on Tue night. By then, yet another batch of long period N swell will propagate southward across 30N to the W of 124W. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are expected N of 29N W of 122W on Wed. $$ CAM