000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052117
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2041 UTC Thu Oct 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from 16N100W to low pres 1008 mb 
centered near 15N106W to 13N110W to low pres 1010 mb centered 
near 13N115W to 09N125W to low pres 1011 mb centered near 11N135W
to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 08N to
10N between 100W and 114W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Tropical Depression Ramon has dissipated over the waters well 
the the SW of Acapulco. The broad cyclonic circulation of a 
Central American Gyre is causing an atypical NW to N gap wind 
event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will diminish to 
speeds below advisory levels on Saturday, as the Central American
Gyre gradually lifts northwestward and weakens.

A ridge covers the waters to the west of the Baja California 
Peninsula. Expect gentle to moderate N to NW winds, and seas of 
4 to 7 feet over the open waters through the weekend. A round of
NW swell will cause seas N of 25N and W of Baja to build above 8
ft by Tuesday morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The large monsoonal circulation that is associated with a 
Central American Gyre has taken the monsoon trough with it 
northward into Central America. This circulation has spawned 
Tropical Storm Nate which is currently centered over the NE
corner of Nicaragua. This synoptic setup is producing a large 
area of fresh to strong winds, with winds locally to near gale 
force. This area includes at least portions of the offshore
zones from Panama to Guatemala. The combination of long period 
cross equatorial SW swell and wind driven waves is generating 
sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 14 feet in the offshore 
waters. The large fetch of winds will remain in place until 
Friday afternoon. This will bring maximum sea heights from south
of Costa Rica to Guatemala to between 15 and 17 ft tonight and 
Friday. The large seas will create dangerous breaking surf along
the coast in these areas.

The enhanced monsoonal flow will continue to push copious 
amounts of moisture into much of Central America, where 
torrential rainfall is likely into the weekend. This extremely 
heavy rainfall will produce life threatening flash floods and 
mudslides.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Gentle to moderate winds prevail in the 
area north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W. A fresh set of
NW swell generated to the NW of a cold front currently 
approaching 30N140W will enter the NW waters this evening. Seas 
associated with this swell will build to 8 and 9 ft NW of a line 
from 30N135W to 26N140W by late Friday. Long period SW swell are 
maintaining seas above 8 ft over all of the discussion area south
of 18N, except for the area SW of a line from 01N121W to 
11N140W. The long period swell have begun to decay and seas in 
this area are expected to subside below 8 ft by Sunday afternoon.

$$
CAM