000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051544 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Oct 5 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The remnant low pressure center of Tropical Depression Ramon at 15/1200 UTC is near 15.5N 105.5W, moving WNW 10 knots. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots. The estimated minimum sea level pressure is 1006 mb. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate today. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 16N to 21N between 106W and 111W. scattered moderate to strong from 14N to 16N between 106W and 109W. Please refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the remnant low of Ramon, to 09N125W, to a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 13N117W, to 09N125W, to a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 12N135W, beyond 10N140W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 10N to 13N between 85W in Central America and 95W. scattered moderate to isolated strong from 03N to 08N between 77W and 80W. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 08N to 11N between 99W and 114W, and from 11N to 13N between 133W and 134. isolated moderate within a 90 nm radius of the 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 13N117W, and within 120 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 120W and 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The broad cyclonic circulation of a Central American Gyre is helping to produce an atypical NW to N gap wind event into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will diminish to speeds that are less than advisory criteria this weekend, as the Central American Gyre breaks down, and the tropical system that it helped to generate moves more northward in the Gulf of Mexico. A ridge covers the waters that are to the west of the Baja California Peninsula. Expect gentle to moderate northerly winds, and sea heights of 4 feet to 7 feet over the open waters through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The large circulation that is associated with a Central American Gyre has lifted the monsoon trough northward into Central America. This circulation has helped to generate Tropical Storm Nate in the western Caribbean Sea. This synoptic setup is helping to produce a large area of fresh to strong winds, with locally higher winds near gale force, extending from Panama northward to Nicaragua. The combination of long period cross equatorial SW swell, and wind driven waves, is producing sea heights that are ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet in the offshore waters. The large area of winds will persist into late Friday. This will help to build the sea heights to 15 to 17 ft by Friday, from northern Panama northward to Nicaragua. The large seas will create dangerous breaking surf along the coast in these areas. The enhanced monsoonal flow will continue to push copious amounts of moisture into parts of Central America, where heavy rainfall is likely into the weekend. This heavy rain will increase the potential for life threatening flash floods and mudslides. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Gentle to moderate winds prevail in the area that is to the north of the monsoon trough, and to the west of 125W. A fresh set of NW swell will enter the NW waters this evening. Seas associated with this swell will build to 8 and 9 ft NW of a line from 30N135W to 26N140W by late Friday. $$ mt