000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050900 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 542 UTC Thu Oct 5 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 05/0900 UTC, Tropical Depression Ramon was downgraded to a remnant low centered near 15.0N 102.5W, moving toward the WNW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are down to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Estimated minimum sea level pressure is 1008 mb. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate today. For more information on Ramon, please refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Central America to 14.5N92W to the remnant low of Ramon near 15N102.5W to low pres near 12N119W to low pres near 12N135W to beyond 10N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 84W and 93W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 19N between 104W and 109W. Scattered moderate is noted within 90 nm north of the monsoon trough between 132W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The broad cyclonic circulation of a Central American Gyre is helping to produce an atypical NW to N gap wind event into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will diminish below advisory criteria this weekend as the Central American Gyre breaks down, and the tropical system it helped spawn moves further northward in the Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, outside of the influence of the Central American Gyre, a ridge dominates the waters west of the Baja California Peninsula, will produce gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft over the open waters through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The large circulation associated to a Central American Gyre has lifted the monsoon trough northward over Central America. This circulation has helped spawn Tropical Depression Sixteen in the western Caribbean. This synoptic setup is helping produce a large area of fresh to strong winds, with locally higher winds near gale force, extending from Panama northward to Nicaragua. The combination of long period cross equatorial SW swell and wind driven waves is producing seas of 8 to 12 ft over the offshore waters. The large area of winds will persist into late Friday. This will help to build seas to 15 to 17 ft by Friday from northern Panama northward to Nicaragua. The large seas will create dangerous breaking surf along the coast over these areas. The enhanced monsoonal flow will continue to advect copious moisture into portions of Central America, where heavy rainfall is likely into the weekend. This heavy rain will increase the potential for life threatening flash floods and mudslides. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W. A fresh set of NW swell will enter the NW waters this evening. Seas associated with this swell will build to between 8 and 9 ft NW of a line from 30N135W to 26N140W by late Friday. $$ AL