000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050239 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 119 UTC Thu Oct 5 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 05/0300 UTC, Tropical Depression Ramon was relocated and centered near 14.8N 101.9W, moving toward the W at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are down to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Estimated minimum sea level pressure is 1004 mb. Ramon is a small system with persistent northeasterly shear keeping much of the convection well away from the increasingly disorganized center of circulation. The system continues to lose organization in satellite imagery over the past six hours. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted well away from the center from 15N to the coast of Mexico between 101W and 104W. The forecast now calls for Ramon to dissipate on Thursday. For more information on Ramon, please refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N101W to 13N115W to low pres 1010 MB centered near 13N119W to 10N127W to low pres 1010 MB centered near 12N135W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 14N to 17N between 105W and 109W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features above for more details on Tropical Depression Ramon. Elsewhere, outside of the influence of Ramon, a ridge dominates the waters west of the Baja California Peninsula, producing gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft. North to northwest swell propagating into the waters west of Baja California Norte are decaying. This will allow seas to subside to 5 to 7 ft on Thursday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong SW to W winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are expected to affect the offshore waters from Panama to Nicaragua by Thursday morning. As Tropical Depression Sixteen intensifies and moves northward in the western Caribbean Sea Thursday, winds will increase and spread northward across the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo by Thursday afternoon. The combination of long period SW swell from the souther hemisphere and wind- driven waves will increase seas over these waters to 15 to 17 ft. The potential exists for dangerous breaking surf along the coast from Panama to Nicaragua. The combination of enhanced monsoonal flow and the developing area of low pressure over the southwest Caribbean will increase the potential for very heavy rainfall over portions of Central America through the end of this week. This heavy rain will bring the potential for life threatening flash floods and mudslides. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1039 mb centered well N and W of the area near 40N164W ridges southeast through 30N135W to near 20N115W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the monsoon trough is supporting mainly moderate winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W. North swell affecting the northern waters continue to subside, and seas in this area have subsided below 8 ft. A new round of NW swell will enter the NW waters Thursday evening. Seas associated with this swell will build to between 8 and 9 ft NW of a line from 30N136W to 27N140W by late Friday. $$ Cobb