000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042142 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2133 UTC Wed Oct 4 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 04/2100 UTC, Tropical Storm Ramon was centered near 15.2N 97.7W, moving toward the WNW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Estimated minimum sea level pressure is 1002 mb. Ramon is a small system with persistent northeasterly shear keeping much of the convection to the SW of the center of circulation. The system has lost some organization in satellite imagery over the past several hours. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 240 nm in the W semicircle and elsewhere from 13N to 18N between 102W and 108W. The forecast now calls for Ramon to weaken to a tropical depression on Thursday and dissipate by Friday as the system parallels the south coast of Mexico. For more information on Ramon, please refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N101W to 14N117W to low pres 1012 MB centered near 13N120W to 10N128W to low pres 1012 MB centered near 12N135W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 09N to 12N between 135W and 139W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features above for more details on Tropical Storm Ramon. Elsewhere, outside of the influence of Ramon, a ridge dominates the waters west of the Baja California Peninsula, producing gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft. North to northwest swell propagating into the waters west of Baja California Norte are decaying. This will allow seas to subside to 5 to 7 ft on Thursday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong SW to W winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are expected to affect the waters beyond 250 nm off the coast from Nicaragua to Guatemala by Thursday morning. As low pressure develops in the western Caribbean Sea tonight and Thursday, winds will increase across the offshore waters from Panama northward to Nicaragua to 20 to 30 kt by Thursday afternoon. The combination of long period SW swell from the souther hemisphere and wind-driven waves will increase seas over these waters to 15 to 17 ft. The potential exists for dangerous breaking surf along the coast from Panama to Nicaragua. The combination of enhanced monsoonal flow and the developing area of low pressure over the southwest Caribbean will increase the potential for heavy rainfall over portions of Central America through the end of this week. This heavy rain will bring the potential for life threatening flash floods and mudslides. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1026 mb centered N of the area near 33N138W ridges southeast to near 20N115W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the monsoon trough is supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W. North swell affecting the northern waters continue to subside, and seas in this area have subsided below 8 ft. A nw round of NW swell will enter the NW waters Thursday. Seas associated with this swell will build to between 8 and 9 ft NW of a line from 30N136W to 28N140W by around sunrise on Friday morning. $$ Cobb