000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040901 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 627 UTC Wed Oct 4 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 04/0900 UTC, recently developed Tropical Storm Ramon was centered near 14.3N 96.0W, moving toward the west at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Estimated minimum sea level pressure is 1002 mb. Ramon is a small system with shear keeping much of the convection to the west of the center of circulation. Numerous moderate to strong convection was noted within 120 nm west semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted elsewhere from 11N to 16N between 94W and 100W. Ramon is currently forecast to continue on a westward track maintaining its 40 kt intensity. For more information on Ramon, please refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N98W to 1010 mb low pres near 13N122W to 11N128W to 1012 mb low pres near 12.5N135W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough between 120W and 125W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features above for more details on Tropical Storm Ramon. Elsewhere, outside of the influence of Ramon, a ridge dominates the waters west of the Baja California Peninsula producing gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft. Northerly swell propagating into the waters west of Baja California Norte, will subside to 6 to 7 ft today. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong SW to W winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are expected to affect the waters beyond 250 nm off the coast from Nicaragua to Guatemala by Wednesday. As low pressure develops in the western Caribbean Sea late Wednesday and Thursday, winds will increase across the offshore waters from Panama northward to Nicaragua to 20 to 30 kt by Thursday. The combination of Long period cross- equatorial SW swell with wind driven waves will increase seas over these waters to near 15 ft. The potential exists for dangerous breaking surf along the coast from Panama to Nicaragua. The combination of enhanced monsoonal flow and the developing area of low pressure over the southwest Caribbean will increase the potential for heavy rainfall over portions of Central America the next several days. This heavy rain will bring the potential for life threatening flash floods and mudslides. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1025 mb centered N of the area near 36N140W extends a ridge southeast to near 21N114W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the monsoon trough is supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W. Northerly swell affecting the northern waters continues to subside. Seas of 8 ft are currently found north 29N between 122W and 129W. Seas over this area will subside below 8 ft today. A fresh set of northwesterly swell will enter the northwest waters Thursday. Seas associated to this swell will build to 8 ft northwest of a line from 30N138W to 29N140W by late Thursday night. $$ AL