000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020909 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 605 UTC Mon Oct 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 1006 mb low pres near 14N94W to 1009 mb low pres near 10N120W to 12N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 07N to 10N between 83W and 90W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 10N to 15N between 93W and 100W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 11N to 13N between 112W and 114W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 08N to 11N west of 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gap winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the overnight and early morning hours through early Tuesday morning as a ridge persists across the western Gulf of Mexico and the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains. Winds and seas will increase across the Gulf of Tehuantepec area as an area of low pressure strengthens a couple hundred miles south of southeastern Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development over the next few days while the system moves slowly west- northwestward. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the waters west of the Baja California Peninsula producing gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft. Northerly swell are propagating into the waters west of Baja California Norte, with seas of 7 to 9 ft offshore Baja California Norte prevailing through Tuesday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... An active monsoon trough is currently across parts of Central America and adjacent waters with widespread convection. The trough will remain close enough to the coast, either inland or just offshore, to produce additional active convection over portions of Central America as well as the adjacent coastal waters during the next few days, with locally heavy rain possible. Fresh to strong SW to W winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are expected to affect the waters beyond 200 nm off the coast from Nicaragua to Guatemala through Wednesday. Winds and seas will also increase across the offshore waters of Panama and Costa Rica Wednesday night and Thursday. Cross equatorial SW swell, with periods of 20 to 22 seconds are forecast to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Tuesday night, building seas to 7-8 ft by Wednesday night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1027 mb centered N of the area near 37N137W extends a ridge southeastward to near 20N118W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds N of 15N W of 130W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and low pressure over the SW United States and NW Mexico is producing fresh to strong N winds north of 29N between 123W and 126W. Associated northerly swell propagating into the northern waters has built seas to 11 ft over this area. Cross equatorial southerly swell will spread across the waters south of 02N between 105W and 135W by Tuesday, with seas building to 8-10 ft. $$ AL