000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010903 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 625 UTC Sun Oct 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Central America to 14N90W to 14N94W to 1010 MB low pres near 11N110W to 09N123W to 1010 MB low pres near 11N131W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 06N to 10N between 82W and 90W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted north of 12N between 90W and 97W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 10N to 13N between 106W and 116W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 09N to 11N between 129W and 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will strengthen early this week as low pressure over the area deepens. Seas will build to 7-8 ft by early Tuesday morning. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of the area of low pressure while it moves slowly west- northwestward through the middle of next week. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the waters west of the Baja California Peninsula producing gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 4-5 ft. Northerly swell will propagate into the waters west of Baja California Norte starting today, building seas to 8-9 ft through Tuesday. Fresh to locally strong S-SW winds are expected over the northern Gulf of California tonight through Tuesday as low pressure develops over the area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... An active monsoon trough is currently across Central America and adjacent waters. The trough will remain close enough to the coast, either inland or just offshore, to produce active convection, primarily during the late afternoon and evening hours, over portions of Central America as well as the adjacent coastal waters during the next few days. Winds and seas are expected to increase over the forecast waters through the forecast period. Fresh to strong SW to W winds and seas of 10-11 ft are expected to affect the waters beyond 200 nm off the coast from Nicaragua to Guatemala beginning Monday morning. Cross equatorial SW swell, with periods of 20 to 22 seconds is forecast to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Tuesday night, building seas to 7-8 ft by Wednesday night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1027 mb centered N of area near 37N132W extends a ridge southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough is supporting mainly moderate to locally fresh NE winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and low pressure inland over the SW United States is producing fresh to strong winds just north of the area. These winds will spread southward today, strengthening winds north of 29N between 121W and 126W by this afternoon. Northerly swell associated to these winds will propagate into the region, with seas peaking near 12 ft along 30N by early Monday. Cross equatorial southerly swell will propagate across the waters south of 02N between 105W and 135W by Tuesday, with seas building to 8-10 ft. $$ AL