000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280211
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0027 UTC Thu Sep 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from 16N94W to 1007 mb low pressure 
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 15.5N97W to 1008 mb low 
pressure centered near 14N118W to 11N127W to 10N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 95W and 
101W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted 
within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough between 108W and 124W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

Low pressure of 1007 mb embedded within the monsoon trough persists
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, supporting scattered showers. 
This area of low pressure will continue off the coast of southern
Mexico through Sunday. Fresh to strong gap winds will develop 
into the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Sat night as high pressure builds
north of the area in the Gulf of Mexico.

Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern remains in place. This will 
support gentle to moderate breezes north of 16N through Sunday. 
Seas in the 3 to 5 ft foot range will prevail over the open 
waters through Sat. Northerly swell will propagate into the 
waters west of Baja California Norte Sunday, building seas to 5 
to 7 ft. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

An active monsoon trough currently passes over Central America. 
The trough will remain close enough to the coast, either inland 
or just offshore, to produce active convection, primarily during
the late afternoon and early evening hours, over portions of
Central America and over the coastal waters the next few days. 
Moderate SW to W winds are expected south of the trough through 
Sun. Long period SE to S swell will maintain 5 to 6 ft seas west 
of Ecuador and south of the Equator during the next few days. 
Looking ahead, broad low pressure developing over Central America
will cause monsoonal winds to surge to fresh to strong west of 
Costa Rica into early next week with seas to 8 ft reaching the 
waters beyond 200 nm off the coast from Nicaragua to Guatemala.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pressure of 1008 mb near 14N118W remains embedded within the
monsoon trough. Enhanced convection associated to this feature 
continues as noted in the monsoon trough section above. The low 
is expected to weaken and become more elongated through Thu, with
winds and seas gradually diminishing. Elsewhere, weak high 
pressure north of the area will support gentle to moderate trade 
winds across the region south of 20N. Looking ahead, northerly 
swell of 8 to 9 ft will propagate into the waters north of 25N 
between 120W and 130W Sun into early next week.

$$
AL