000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241003
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
711 UTC Sun Sep 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Pilar is located about 75 nm W of Manzanillo 
Mexico and about 80 nm S of cabo Corrientes Mexico near 19.1N 
105.6W 1002 MB at 0900 UTC moving NNW or 335 DEG at 4 KT. Maximum
sustained winds 40 KT gusts 50 KT. Pilar is expected generally 
track toward the NNW slowly through Tuesday night. Pilar will 
strengthen slightly to 45 kt during the next 12 hours as it moves
N along the Mexican coast of Jalisco, and then maintain an 
intensity around 45 kt as it passes just E of Las Tres Marias on 
Monday afternoon. Pilar is then forecast to weaken into a 
tropical depression Monday night and dissipate by Thursday 
morning. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
observed within 150 nm in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate 
convection is seen within 120 nm in the SE quadrant. Heavy 
rainfall causing flash floods and mudslides will be possible for 
coastal states from Colima to Nayarit through Monday afternoon, 
and for southern Sinaloa through Monday night. See the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTNT23 KNHC 
for more details.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from 09N74W to 11N90W to 
16N101W, then resumes from near 18N108W to 12N118W to low pres 
1010 mb near 14N127W to 12N135W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is found within 180 nm 
either side of the trough axis between 86W and 100W. Scattered 
moderate convection is present along and up to 120 nm SE of the
trough axis between 110W and 117W.
 
...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

A high pressure ridge building in north of 25N will aid in 
freshening NW winds west of Baja California Norte today and
tonight. Elsewhere, expect increasing winds and seas spreading 
northwestward from near Cabo Corrientes to the southern Gulf of 
California as Tropical Storm Pilar slowly tracks NNW during the 
next few days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

An active monsoon trough near the coast of Central America from 
Guatemala to Panama will remain the focus for active convection 
in coastal waters the next few days. Expect moderate SW to W 
winds to prevail south of the trough through Tuesday night. 
Farther south, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds will 
persist south of 05N through Tuesday night. Long period SE swell 
from the Southern Hemisphere will decay and allow seas west of 
Ecuador and south of the Equator to subside from around 7 ft to 
around 6 ft during the next couple of days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

NW swell generated by strong winds north of the area are 
producing 7 to 8 ft seas N of 27N between 117W and 128W. Seas in 
the area will continue to subside as the NW swell decay. High 
pres centered well N of the area and low pressure associated with
the monsoon trough will maintain moderate to occasionally fresh 
trade winds W of 120W through tonight. Low pres passing north of 
the area will weaken the high, allowing trades to decrease during
the second half of the week. 

$$
CAM