000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190256 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Sep 19 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Otis is centered near 19.4N 127.7W at 19/0300 UTC or about 1015 nm W of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula moving W at 4 kt. Estimated central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained winds have dropped to 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. A turn toward the west-southwest is expected tonight. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Otis is likely to dissipate in a day or so. Peak seas are currently at 20 ft, but are fading quickly and should drop below 12 ft by late Wednesday. Scattered moderate convection is limited to within 120 nm of the center in the northern quadrant only. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for additional details. Tropical Storm Norma is center near 21.7N 113.7W at 19/0300 UTC or roughly 220 nm WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained winds have lowered to 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. This general motion is expected to continue on Tuesday with a gradual turn to the northwest thereafter. Further weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Norma is expected to become a tropical depression by Tuesday. Seas are currently up to 15 ft and will gradually fade and drop below 12 ft by early Wednesday. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring within 120 nm of the center in the E semicircle. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 95W N of 12N, moving W around 10 kt. The wave is well apparent in the SUNY-Albany tropical wave diagnostics from the 700 mb flow, as well as the rawindsondes from southern Mexico and Central America. The surface circulation is not distinct from the monsoon trough currently. No significant convection is currently associated with the wave. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N86W to 09N107W to 15N123W. It resumes at 15N132W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection exists N of 08W E of 95W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection exists within 60 nm of the axis between 120W and 124W and W of 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the special features section for more information about Tropical Storm Norma. After Norma fades by Wednesday, winds will remain 20 kt or less through Saturday. Northwesterly swell of 8-11 ft will reach the zones west of Baja California on Wednesday and Thursday and will diminish around Saturday. Southwesterly swell of 8-9 ft associated with the monsoon trough should reach the zones south of southern and southeastern Mexico on Saturday. Gulf of California...Winds will remain 20 kt or less and seas below 8 ft through Saturday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds will remain 20 kt or less and seas below 8 ft through Saturday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the special features section for details on Tropical Storm Otis. After Otis fades by Wednesday, winds will remain at 20 kt or less through Saturday. Tuesday night a northwesterly swell will begin moving across our northern border at 30N with heights of 8-11 ft. This swell will propagate southward and reach about 15N on Thursday before diminishing below 8 ft on Saturday. $$ Landsea