000 AXPZ20 KNHC 182203 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Sep 18 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Otis is centered near 19.1N 127.6W at 18/2100 UTC or about 1020 nm W of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula moving W at 2 kt. Estimated central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained winds have dropped to 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. A turn toward the southwest is expected tonight, and a continued southwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast through Wednesday. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Otis will likely become a remnant low by tomorrow afternoon. Peak seas are currently at 22 ft, but are fading quickly and should drop below 12 ft by late Wednesday. Scattered moderate convection is limited to within 180 nm of the center in the northern quadrant only. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for additional details. Tropical Storm Norma is center near 21.4N 112.8W at 18/2100 UTC or roughly 185 nm WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico moving W at 5 kt. Estimated central pressure is 1003 mb. The maximum sustained winds have lowered to 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. A continued westward motion is forecast for the next 24 hours, followed by a gradual turn toward the north. Further weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Norma is expected to become a tropical depression by Tuesday. Seas are currently up to 16 ft and will gradually fade and drop below 12 ft by early Wednesday. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 180 nm of the center. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 95W N of 12N, moving W around 10 kt. The wave is well apparent in the SUNY-Albany tropical wave diagnostics from the 700 mb flow, as well as the rawindsondes from southern Mexico and Central America. The surface circulation is not distinct from the monsoon trough currently. No significant convection is currently associated with the wave. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to 12N97W to 07N109W to 14N121W. It resumes at 14N133W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection exists N of 07W E of 100W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection exists within 60 nm of the axis W of 133W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the special features section for more information about Tropical Storm Norma. Gulf of California...Winds will remain 20 kt or less and seas below 8 ft through Friday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds will continue N of the monsoon trough through Thursday when the monsoon trough will lift further northward. Moderate SW winds and 4 to 7 ft seas will prevail S of the monsoon trough axis through Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the special features section for details on Tropical Storm Otis. A NW to SE orientated surface ridge separates the areas of cyclonic wind flow that are around the tropical cyclones. Long period NW swell in the form of 8 to 9 ft seas is forecast to arrive near 30N122W on Tuesday in the early afternoon, and continue to propagate southward, and be to the NW of the line from 30N118W to 26N120W to 26N125W to 16N125W to 16N140W early on Wednesday morning, and then to the NW of the line from 30N116W to 22N118W to 15N130W to 15N140W early on Thursday morning. $$ Landsea/Aguirre