000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161006
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Sep 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Norma at 16/0900 UTC is near 19.0N 
110.2W, or about 45 nm ENE of Socorro Island, and about 235 nm S 
of Cabo San Lucas Mexico. Norma is moving N, 360 degrees, 0 
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. The 
maximum sustained wind speeds are 65 knots with gusts to 80 
knots. Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong within 180 nm of the center in the E semicircle, and 
within 90 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Please read the 
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details.

The center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E at 16/0900 UTC is 
near 15.8N 126.0W, or about 1000 nm WSW of the southern tip of 
Baja California. The depression is moving W, 260 degrees, 2 
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The 
maximum sustained wind speeds are 25 knots with gusts to 35 
knots. Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong 
within 75 nm of the center in the N quadrant. scattered mdoerate 
to isolated strong within 75 nm of the center in the W quadrant. 
scattered moderate within 75 nm to 180 nm of the center in the 
SW quadrant. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
None.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through Costa Rica near 09N84W to 
07N101W and 08N108W. It resumes from 13N129W to a 1011 mb low 
pressure center that is near 13N134W, to 11N140W. Convective 
precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong within 360 
nm to the south of the monsoon trough from 98W eastward. 
Scattered to numerous strong from 15N to 17N between 98W and 
101W, along the coast of Mexico. scattered moderate to isolated 
strong from 13N to 18N between 118w and 122w, and within 90 nm 
of the 1011 mb low pressure center in the N semicircle.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the special features section for more 
information about Hurricane Norma.

Gulf of California...Light and variable winds are forecast 
during the weekend and for the first few days of the next week.
Large southerly swells will be arriving across the southern 
waters during the next 24 hours, before the arrival of Norma 
from the south.
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will lift northward slowly during the next 
few days. It will reach near the coast of Nicaragua by midday on 
Tuesday, and potentially inland to Guatemala by Wednesday 
midday. Abundant moisture along the trough will allow for 
scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms, that may produce 
heavy rainfall, and lead to flash floods and mudslides across 
coastal zones and large river discharges early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb 
high pressure center that is near 33N144W to 24N122W. Light to 
locally moderate anticyclonic flow is expected elsewhere N of 
the monsoon trough and W of 115W today and tomorrow. 
$$
mt