000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160259 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0250 UTC Sat Sep 16 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Norma is centered near 19.0N 110.2W at 16/0300 UTC or about 50 nm ENE of Socorro Island and about 235 nm S of Cabo San Lucas Mexico moving NNW at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 16N to 22N between 107W and 112W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 13N to 16N between 109W and 115W. See latest NHC Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is centered near 16.0N 125.4W at 16/0300 UTC or about 970 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California moving WSW at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N to 17N between 124W and 128W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... None. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 08N96W...then resumes from 14N127W to Low Pres 1010 mb near 13N134W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is E of 79W and from 06N to 11N between 80W and 100W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the special features section above for more information on Hurricane Norma. A NW to SE oriented trough will meander across the Baja California peninsula and Gulf of California region with a surface low developing intermittently along the trough axis across the far northern Gulf waters through Sun. A weak ridge extends along 25N/26N and will retreat W on Fri night as Hurricane Norma approaches the southern tip of the Baja peninsula this weekend. Gulf of California...Light and variable winds expected through Fri with large southerly swells arriving across the southern waters tonight into Sat well ahead of the arrival of Norma from the south. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow is expected through the upcoming weekend with 6 to 8 ft seas primarily due to cross- equatorial swell that is forecast to subside below 8 ft tonight. The monsoon trough has been lifting northward the past few days and will move N of Panama and near the coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua late Fri...then potentially inland farther north to Guatemala. Abundant moisture converging near the trough will allow for scattered heavy showers and tstms that could produce very heavy rainfall and lead to flash flooding and mudslides across coastal zones and large river discharges early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high centered near 35N142W to 24N117W and connects to the ridge off Baja California. Light to locally moderate anticyclonic flow is expected elsewhere N of the monsoon trough and W of 115W through the upcoming weekend. $$ HUFFMAN