000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151004 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Sep 15 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The remnants of Max 15/0900 UTC are a 1005 mb low pressure center that is near 17.0N 98.0W, inland, in Mexico. The low center is moving ENE, 60 degrees, 04 knots. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 13N to 17N between 98W and 103W. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. The center of Tropical Storm Norma at 15/0900 UTC is near 18.6N 109.7W, moving N, 350 degrees, 02 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Convective precipitation: scattered strong within 90 nm S semicircle and 60 nm N semicircle. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. The center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E at 15/0900 UTC is near 15.9N 124.5W, moving W, 270 degrees, 04 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Convective precipitation: SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER IN W QUADRANT. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS... A 1010 mb low pressure is near 12N133W in the monsoon trough. S to SW winds of 20 to 25 kt are within 180 nm of the SE semicircle with seas to 9 ft. The low is expected to weaken gradually through Saturday with seas subsiding to less than 8 feet by Saturday night. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N86W TO 12N93W...THEN RESUMES FROM 13N129W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 12N133W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 360 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF 97W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the special features section above for more information on Tropical Storm Max and Tropical Storm Norma. A NW to SE oriented trough will meander E to W across the Baja California Peninsula and the Gulf of California with a surface low developing intermittently along the trough axis across the far northern Gulf waters. A northwest to southeast orientated ridge will meander from 25N118W to 22N112W tonight...then shift W on Fri night as Norma approaches the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula this weekend. Gulf of California...Light and variable winds expected through Fri with large southerly swells arriving across the southern waters late Fri night or early Sat well ahead of Norma. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow is expected through the upcoming weekend with 6 to 8 ft seas primarily due to cross- equatorial swell that is forecast to subside below 8 ft late Friday into Saturday. The monsoon trough has been lifting northward the past few days and will move to near the coast across Panama...Costa Rica...and Nicaragua...then potentially inland farther north to Guatemala. Abundant moisture converging near the trough will allow for scattered heavy showers and tstms that could produce very heavy rainfall and lead to flash flooding and mudslides across coastal zones and large river discharges early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 34N142W, to 28N136W and 20N133W. Light to locally moderate anticyclonic flow is expected elsewhere N of the monsoon trough and W of 115W through the upcoming weekend. $$ mt