000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150257 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0255 UTC Fri Sep 15 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Max is centered near 16.8N 98.5W at 15/0300 UTC or about 85 nm E of Acapulco Mexico moving E at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 14N to 18N between 97W and 103W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Norma is centered near 18.3N 109.3W at 15/0300 UTC or about 100 nm ESE of Socorro Island and about 280 nm S of Cabo San Lucas Mexico moving N at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N to 20N between 106W and 113W...and from 12N to 16N between 111W and 117W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is centered near 15.8N 124.1W at 15/0300 UTC or about 910 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California moving WNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N to 18N between 123W and 129W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS... A 1009 mb low is embedded in the monsoon trough near 12N135W that continues to drift E-NE. S to SW winds of 20 to 25 kt are noted within 180 nm of the SE semicircle with seas to 9 ft. The low is expected to gradually weaken through Saturday with seas subsiding below 8 ft by Saturday night. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 09N84W to 15N96W... then resumes near 13N127W to Low Pres 1009 mb near 12N135W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 06N E of 79W and from 06N to 11N between 81W and 97W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the special features section above for more information on Tropical Storm Max and Tropical Storm Norma. A NW to SE oriented trough will meander E to W across the Baja California Peninsula and the Gulf of California with a surface low developing intermittently along the trough axis across the far northern Gulf waters. A northwest to southeast orientated ridge will meander from 25N118W to 22N112W tonight...then shift W on Fri night as Norma approaches the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula this weekend. Gulf of California...Light and variable winds expected through Fri with large southerly swells arriving across the southern waters late Fri night or early Sat well ahead of Norma. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow is expected through the upcoming weekend with 6 to 8 ft seas primarily due to cross- equatorial swell that is forecast to subside below 8 ft late Friday into Saturday. The monsoon trough has been lifting northward the past few days and will move to near the coast across Panama...Costa Rica...and Nicaragua...then potentially inland farther north to Guatemala. Abundant moisture converging near the trough will allow for scattered heavy showers and tstms that could produce very heavy rainfall and lead to flash flooding and mudslides across coastal zones and large river discharges early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Elsewhere...a ridge extends from 32N138W to 24N118W with light to locally moderate anticyclonic flow expected elsewhere N of the monsoon trough and W of 115W through the upcoming weekend. $$ HUFFMAN