000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142140 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2108 UTC Thu Sep 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Max is centered near 16.6N 99.1W at 14/2100 UTC or about 50 nm ESE of Acapulco Mexico moving E at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is from 13N to 18N between 97W and 103W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Norma is centered near 17.7N 109.3W at 14/2100 UTC or about 115 nm SE of Socorro Island and about 310 nm S of Cabo San Lucas Mexico moving N at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N to 20N between 105W and 112W...and from 12N to 17N between 112W and 116W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is centered near 15.6N 123.3W at 14/2100 UTC or about 880 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California moving W at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N to 18N between 122W and 128W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS... A 1009 mb low is embedded in the monsoon trough near 12N135W that continues to drift E-NE. S to SW winds of 20 to 25 kt are noted within 180 nm of the SE semicircle with seas to 9 ft. The low is expected to gradually weaken through Saturday with seas subsiding below 8 ft by Saturday night. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 14N96W...then resumes near 13N126W to Low Pres 1009 mb near 12N135W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 12N between 78W and 95W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the special features section above for more information on Hurricane Max and Tropical Storm Norma. A NW to SE oriented trough will meander E to W across the Baja California Peninsula and the Gulf of California with a surface low developing intermittently along the trough axis across the far northern Gulf waters. A northwest to southeast orientated ridge will meander from 25N118W to 22N112W tonight...then shift W on Fri night as Norma approaches the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula this weekend. Gulf of California...Light and variable winds expected through Fri with large southerly swells arriving across the southern waters late Fri night or early Sat well ahead of Norma. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow is expected through the upcoming weekend with 6 to 8 ft seas primarily due to cross- equatorial swell that is forecast to subside below 8 ft late Friday into Saturday. The monsoon trough has been lifting northward the past few days and will move to near the coast across Panama...Costa Rica...and Nicaragua...then potentially inland farther north to Guatemala. Abundant moisture converging near the trough will allow for scattered heavy showers and tstms that could produce very heavy rainfall and lead to flash flooding and mudslides across coastal zones and large river discharges early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Elsewhere...a ridge extends from 32N138W to 24N118W with light to locally moderate anticyclonic flow expected elsewhere N of the monsoon trough and W of 115W through the upcoming weekend. $$ HUFFMAN