000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141613 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Sep 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Hurricane Max is centered near 16.3N 99.9W 988 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 14 moving E OR 090 DEG AT 6 KT. Maximum sustained winds 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. Scattered strong convection is currently noted within 90 nm E and 120 nm W semicircles of Max, while scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere within 180 nm across the S semicircle. Max has moved eastward this morning and intensified to hurricane strength and forecast to move ENE and inland this evening or tonight. Locally heavy rains are expected to spread inland with Max across large portions of Oaxaca and Guerrero. These rains may cause life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. For additional information refer to NHC forecast advisories under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ21 KNHC/MIATCMEP1. Tropical Depression 15-E is centered near 15.4N 122.8W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 14 moving W OR 280 DEG AT 4 KT. Maximum sustained winds 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. Scattered moderate to strong convection is currently observed within 90 nm over the E and 150 nm W semicircles of the depression. Although the depression continues to experience upper level wind shear, it is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm in 36-48 hours and continue westward maintaining tropical storm strength through the upcoming weekend. For additional information refer to NHC forecast advisories under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ25 KNHC/MIATCMEP5. Newly classified Tropical Storm Norma is located near 17.2N 109.5W 1004 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 14 moving N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. Maximum sustained winds 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. Norma is embedded within a zone of broad monsoonal SW winds and very active convection, with scattered moderate to strong convection observed within 90 NM NE...150 NM SE...420 NM SW and 120 NM NW quadrants. Norma is forecast to move slowly northward through the weekend and approach the southern Baja California Peninsula, and strengthen to a hurricane. Norma is then expected to increase forward speed early next week and could move across Baja California Sur and through the central Gulf of California. All interests across Baja California should closely monitor the progress of Norma. Southerly swell from Norma will begin to move into the entrance to Gulf of California on Sat. For additional information refer to NHC forecast advisories under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ22 KNHC/MIATCMEP2. ...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS... A 1008 mb low is embedded in the monsoon trough near 10N136W with scattered moderate convection observed within 60 nm across the NE semicircle of the low. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends FROM 10N74W TO 11N82W TO 10N87W TO 14N89W...THEN RESUMES FROM 13N125W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N136W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S AND SW OF COASTLINES FROM 04.5N77.5W TO 13N95W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the special features section above for more on Hurricane Max, and Tropical Storm Norma. A NW to SE oriented trough will meander E to W across the Baja California Peninsula and the Gulf of California with a surface low developing intermittently along the trough axis over the far northern Gulf waters. A W to E orientated ridge will meander from 23N116W to 21N110W through tonight, then retract W on Fri night as Norma approaches the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula this weekend. Gulf of California...Light and variable winds expected through Fri with large southerly swells arriving across the southern waters late Fri night or early Sat well ahead of Norma. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow expected through the upcoming weekend with 6 to 8 ft seas primarily due to cross- equatorial swell that is forecast to subside below 8 ft on Fri. The monsoon trough has been lifting northward the past few days and will move to near the coast across Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua, and potentially inland farther north to Guatemala. Abundant moisture converging near the trough will allow for scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms that could produce very heavy rainfall and lead to flash flooding and mudslides across coastal zones and large river discharges early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Elsewhere, a ridge extends from 32N138W to 23N116W with light to locally moderate anticyclonic flow expected elsewhere N of the monsoon trough and W of 115W through the upcoming weekend. $$ Stripling