000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140234 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 043 UTC Thu Sep 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Max near 16.3N 101.1W 1001 mb at 0300 UTC SEP 14 moving ENE or 65 DEG at 3 KT. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 45 nm northwest and 60 nm southeast semicircle of Max. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 13N to 17N between 97W and 104W. Max is forecast to move inland over southwest Mexico Thu night. Locally heavy rains are expected to spread inland with the system. These rains may cause life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. For additional information refer to NHC forecast advisories under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ21 KNHC/MIATCMEP1. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is centered at 15.1N 121.3W 1006 mb at 0300 UTC SEP 14 moving W or 270 DEG at 2 KT. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 121W and 125W. This system will continuing moving generally westward and is forecast to reach tropical storm intensity Thursday. For additional information refer to NHC forecast advisories under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ25 KNHC/MIATCMEP5. A 1007 mb surface low is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 15.5N110W. The most recent scatterometer pass indicated winds to gale force within 150 nm southeast quadrant of the low. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 210 NM southeast semicircle of the low. Environmental conditions are favorable for this system to strengthen to a tropical cyclone as it moves northward this week. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 15N97W. It resumes near 16N105W to low pres near 15.5N110W to Tropical Depression Fifteen-E near 15.1N 121.3W to 11N130W to low pres near 10.5N135W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 06N to 10N between 81W and 88W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see special features section above for more on Tropical Storm Max, and the gale warning associated with low pres centered near 15.5N110W. A NW to SE oriented trough will meander E to W across the Baja California Peninsula and the Gulf of California with a surface low developing intermittently along the trough axis over the far northern Gulf waters. Gulf of California...Light, mostly NW winds expected through Fri with large southerly swells arriving across the southern waters on Fri night ahead an approaching tropical low. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow is expected through the upcoming weekend with 6 to 8 ft seas primarily due to cross- equatorial swell that is forecast to subside below 8 ft on Fri night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1021 MB centered near 36N140W extends a ridge southeast to near 25N115W. Outside the influence of the tropical cyclones, light to locally moderate anticyclonic flow is expected to prevail N of the monsoon trough and W of 115W through the upcoming weekend. $$ AL