000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112202 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Sep 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E has formed at 11/2100 UTC, near 16.4N 112.3W, moving W, 270 degrees, 13 kt. The minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES about T.D. FIFTEEN-E are being issued under the WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC, and under the AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES about T.D. FIFTEEN-E are being issued under the WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC, and under the AWIPS header MIATCMEP5. Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong within 300 nm of the center in the W semicircle. A surface trough, that is located a few hundred miles to the south of the southern coast of Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development. It is likely that a tropical depression may form later this week, while the system moves slowly northwestward. The chance of formation is medium. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 12N86W TO 12N101W TO 15N108W...AND ALONG 13N115W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N126W 1011 MB...TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N134W 1011 MB...TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF 132W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF 101W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A NW to SE oriented trough will meander across the Baja California Peninsula and the Gulf of California with a surface low developing intermittently along the trough axis over the far northern Gulf waters. A W to E orientated ridge will meander from 23N116W to 21N110W early this week with a moderate W to NW breeze is forecast across the EPAC waters S and W of the Baja California Peninsula through Wed afternoon, with 5 to 6 ft seas. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong to near gale force northerly flow is expected through early Tue, with seas building to 11 ft downstream of the gulf waters near 14N96W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough has lifted N, with moderate to locally fresh southwesterly monsoonal flow expected S of the trough axis expected the next several days. Seas in the 6 to 9 ft range in cross- equatorial southerly swell prevails. These southerly swells will begin to subside on Tue night, with seas expected to fall below 8 ft by Fri night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center that is to the north of the area near 39N136W, to 22N134W. Moderate anticyclonic flow is expected N of the monsoon trough and W of 115W. Fresh to locally strong SW monsoonal flow, and 8 to 12 ft seas, is forecast from 06N to 10N between 97W and 110W today in long period cross- equatorial swell. This swell will begin to subside on Tue night. $$ mt