000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102141
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Sep 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS...

A tropical wave is along 106W/107W from 20N southward, moving 
westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate 
to strong from 16N to 19N within 100 nm to the west of the wave.
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 12N to 16N between 
103W and 110W. scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N to 
13N between 107W and 112W. 
 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough passes through 11N86W NW Costa Rica, to 
14N94W, to 16N110W, 14N129W, to a 1012 mb low pressure center 
that is near 13N133W, beyond 11N140W. Convective precipitation: 
scattered moderate to isolated strong within 540 nm to the south 
of the monsoon trough between 86W and 110W. scattered moderate 
to isolated strong also is from 02N to 08N from 86W eastward.
isolated moderate to locally strong within 90 nm to the north of 
the monsoon trough between 123W and 125W, and within 240 nm to 
the south of the monsoon trough between 123W and 130W.

Isolated moderate to locally strong within 180 nm of the 1012 mb
low pressure center, from SW through N.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A NW to SE oriented trough will meander across the Baja 
California Peninsula and the Gulf of California with a surface 
low developing intermittently along the trough axis in the far 
northern Gulf waters. A W to E orientated ridge will meander 
from 23N116W to 19N109W through the middle of next week. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong to near gale force northerly flow is 
expected through early Tue, with seas building to 11 ft 
downstream of the gulf waters near 14N96W.
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
    
The monsoon trough is expected to lift N this week with moderate 
to locally fresh southwesterly monsoonal flow expected S of the 
trough axis with 6 to 9 ft seas in cross-equatorial swell. These 
southerly swells with subside to less than 8 ft on Wed night.  

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1027 mb centered north of the area near 38N136W 
extends a ridge southeast to near 21N112W. Moderate anticyclonic
flow is expected N of the monsoon trough and W of 115W through 
early next week.

Fresh to locally strong SW monsoonal flow, and seas in the 7 to 
11 ft range in long period cross-equatorial swell is forecast to 
propagate N across the tropical waters between 80W and 115W 
through Tue. 
  
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mt