000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101458
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1246 UTC Sun Sep 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS...

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed near 105W from 06N to 
20N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted within 90 nm of the wave axis. 

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13.5N94W to 16N111W to
14N121W to 14N130W to 10N137W to 10N140W. Aside from convection 
associated to the tropical wave, scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection was noted from 06N to 14N between 90W and 102W.
Scattered moderate convection was noted from 11N to 15N between 
120W and 128W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A NW to SE oriented trough will meander across the Baja 
California Peninsula and the Gulf of California with a surface 
low developing intermittently along the trough axis over the far 
northern Gulf waters. A W to E orientated ridge will meander 
from 23N116W to 19N109W through the middle of next week. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong to near gale force northerly flow is 
expected through early Tue, with seas building to 11 ft 
downstream of the gulf waters near 14.5N95.5W.
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
    
The monsoon trough is expected to lift N this week with moderate 
to locally fresh southwesterly monsoonal flow expected S of the 
trough axis with 6 to 9 ft seas in cross-equatorial swell. These 
southerly swells with subside to less than 8 ft on Wed night.  

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1027 mb centered north of the area near 38N136W 
extends a ridge southeast to near 21N112W. Moderate anticyclonic
flow is expected N of the monsoon trough and W of 115W through 
early next week.

Fresh to locally strong SW monsoonal flow, and seas in the 7 to 
11 ft range in long period cross-equatorial swell is forecast to 
propagate N across the tropical waters between 80W and 115W 
through Tue. 
  
$$
AL