000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100951 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Sep 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS... A tropical wave is analyzed to the N of 06N along 107W and has been moving W at 15 kt over the past 48 hours. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is currently observed from 09N to 14N within 150 nm of the wave axis. Similar convection is observed to the N of 16N within 210 nm E of the wave axis. A tropical low is forecast to develop near 13N101W on Mon night, and move NW towards the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula this week with favorable environmental conditions for gradual strengthening. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends SW off the coast of El Salvador at 14N89W to 11N104W, then turns NW through a tropical wave at 12N107W to 14N114W, then W to 13N129W, then SW to beyond 10N140W. Except as mentioned near the tropical wave, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 01N to 07N E of 80W, within 90 nm either side of a line from 08N93W to 15N96W, within 120 nm of 08N102W, and within 75 nm either side of a line from 11N117W to 13N122W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A NW to SE oriented trough will meander across the Baja California Peninsula and the Gulf of California with a surface low developing intermittently along the trough axis over the far northern Gulf waters. A W to E orientated ridge will meander from 23N116W to 19N109W through the middle of next week. A moderate W to NW breeze is forecast across the EPAC waters W of the Baja California Peninsula through the middle of the week, with 5 to 6 ft seas. Gulf of California...Light, mostly NW winds expected through Wed. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong to near gale force northerly flow is expected through early Tue, with seas building to 11 ft downstream of the gulf waters near 14.5N95.5W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough is expected to lift N this week with moderate to locally fresh southwesterly monsoonal flow expected S of the trough axis with 6 to 9 ft seas in cross-equatorial swell. These southerly swells with subside to less than 8 ft on Wed night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from 32N135W to 23N116W with moderate anticyclonic flow is expected N of the monsoon trough and W of 115W through early next week. Fresh to locally strong SW monsoonal flow, and 7 to 11 ft seas, is forecast from 03N to 10N between 90W and 105W today with long period cross-equatorial swell propagating N across the tropical waters between 80W and 115W through Tue. $$ Nelson