000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091503
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1253 UTC Sat Sep 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 103W north of 07N. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 15N to 17N
between 99W and 103W.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N100W to 15N112W to
09N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted within 240 nm south of the monsoon trough
between 86W and 100W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted within 300 nm south of the monsoon trough
between 106W and 114W. Scattered moderate convection was noted
within 270 nm north of the monsoon trough between 120W and 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A NW to SE oriented trough will meander across the Baja 
California Peninsula and the Gulf of California with a surface 
low developing intermittently along the trough axis over the far 
northern Gulf waters. A W to E orientated ridge will meander 
from 23N116W to 17N106W through the middle of next week. A 
moderate W to NW breeze is forecast across the EPAC waters W of 
the Baja California Peninsula into early next week, with seas in
the 5 to 6 ft range.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong to near gale force northerly flow is 
expected through early Tue, with seas building to 11 ft 
downstream of the gulf waters near 14.5N96W.
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
    
Light W-NW flow is expected N of the monsoon trough, with fresh 
to locally strong southwesterly monsoonal flow expected S of the 
monsoon trough through Sun with 6 to 9 ft seas in cross- 
equatorial swell. The pressure gradient will relax during the 
middle of next week with the southerly swells also subsiding.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1026 mb, centered northwest of the area near
35N141W, extends a ridge southeast to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. With this synoptic scenario, moderate anticyclonic flow 
is expected N of the monsoon trough and W of 115W through early 
next week.

Fresh to strong southwesterly monsoonal flow will develop along 
07N between 82W and 112W on Sun and Mon, with cross-equatorial 
southerly swell propagating N across the waters S of 11N between
82W and 113W.

$$
AL