000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090946
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Sep 09 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0945 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS...

A tropical wave is analyzed to the N of 07N along 102W and has 
been moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is currently observed along the wave axis on the 
Mexican coast at 18N102W. 

A 1010 mb surface low is embedded within the monsoon trough at 
16N112W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is flaring 
within 180 nm over the SE quadrant of the low.

A 1010 mb surface low is embedded within the monsoon trough at 
11N121W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
flaring within 300 nm over the SE quadrant of the low. 

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends W across the SW Caribbean along 09N 
to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 10N85W, then continues NW 
along the coasts of mexico and Central America to the N extent 
of a tropical wave at 17N102W, then turns WSW through embedded 
surface lows at 16N112W and 11N121W to 09N133W, then turns W to 
beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted within 120 nm either side of a line of lines from 07N78W 
to 09N88W, and from 10N105W to 13N113W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A NW to SE oriented trough will meander across the Baja 
California Peninsula and the Gulf of California with a surface 
low developing intermittently along the trough axis over the far 
northern Gulf waters. A W to E orientated ridge will meander 
from 23N116W to 17N106W through the middle of next week. A 
moderate W to NW breeze is forecast across the EPAC waters W of 
the Baja California Peninsula into early next week, with 5 to 6 
ft seas.

Gulf of California...Moderate southerly flow forecast this 
morning, then light and variable winds expected through the 
middle of next week.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong to near gale force northerly flow is 
expected through early Tue, with seas building to 11 ft 
downstream of the gulf waters near 14.5N96W.
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
    
Light W-NW flow is expected N of the monsoon trough this morning 
with the trough forecast to shift northward with fresh to 
locally strong southwesterly monsoonal flow expected S of the 
monsoon trough through Sun with 6 to 9 ft seas in cross-
equatorial swell.  The pressure gradient will relax during the 
middle of next week with the southerly swells also subsiding.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from 32N135W to 22N115W and bridges through a 
dissipating front that extends from 32N124W to 22N140W. Moderate 
anticyclonic flow is expected N of the monsoon trough and W of 
115W through early next week.

Fresh monsoonal flow, and 6 to 9 ft seas, is forecast from 08N
to 10N between 112W and 125W today. Fresh to locally strong 
southwesterly flow will then develop along 07N between 82W and 
112W on Sun and Mon. By then cross-equatorial southerly swell 
will have propagated N across the waters S of 11N between 82W 
and 113W.

$$
Nelson