000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082102 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2045 UTC Fri Sep 8 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS... A tropical wave is analyzed to the N of 04N along 98W and has been moving W at 12 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 90W and 98W. A 1010 mb surface low is embedded within the monsoon trough at 16N112W. Scattered moderate convection is flaring within 120 nm NW quadrant of low. A 1011 mb surface low is embedded within the monsoon trough at 12N122W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 14N between 121W and 128W. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends NW off the coast of Nicaragua from 12N87W to 16N112W to 10N130W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 90W and 120W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A NW to SE oriented trough will meander across the Baja California Peninsula and the Gulf of California with a surface low developing intermittently along the trough near 31.5N115W. A W to E orientated ridge extends across the waters W of 118W beyond 120 nm. A moderate NW breeze is forecast across the EPAC waters W of the Baja California Peninsula through late Sat, then the pressure gradient will tighten resulting in moderate to locally fresh NW winds and 5 to 6 ft seas, to the N of 28N within 90 nm of the W coast of the Baja Peninsula. These conditions will continue through the middle of next week. Gulf of California...Moderate southerly flow forecast through Fri night, then light and variable winds expected through the middle of next week. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to locally strong nocturnal northerly flow is expected on Sat night with seas building to 9 ft downstream of the gulf waters near 14N95W. A stronger event is forecast on Sun and Mon nights with seas building to 10 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light W-NW flow is expected N of the monsoon trough through early Sun. Fresh southwesterly monsoonal flow is forecast through Sun with 6 to 9 ft seas in cross-equatorial swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1027 mb surface high pressure is centered just NW of the area near 36N145W, with a ridge extending E to near 20N120W. The pressure gradient will support a small area of fresh NE-E trades, and 7 to 9 ft seas, across the tropical waters from 14N to 20N W of 136W today. Otherwise moderate anticyclonic flow is expected N of the monsoon trough and W of 115W through the upcoming weekend. Fresh monsoonal flow, and 6 to 9 ft seas, is forecast S of 10N between 113W and 128W through Sat night, then the fresh trades will shift E of 112W with patches of strong SW flow near 10N108W on Mon night. $$ ERA