000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070920
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Sep 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 13N91W to 11N96W to 
13N105W, then resumes from 15N110W to 13N118W to 09N125W to a 
1012 mb low near 13N134W. ITCZ from 12N135W to beyond 10N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 50 nm south of the 
monsoon trough between 85W and 89W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is N of the low within 60 nm of 15N135W.
  
...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge covers the NW forecast area and extends E 
to Baja California adjacent waters. An elongated area of low 
pressure prevails along Baja California. The pressure gradient 
between these two features supports moderate NW winds W of the 
Baja California Peninsula north of 26N E of 120W, expected to 
continue through Fri morning.

Gulf of California...Light southerly winds are expected through 
early Fri, increasing to a moderate breeze through the weekend.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: A gap wind event with fresh to strong winds 
and seas to 8 ft is forecast from Sat night through Sun morning. 
Winds will pulse again at night on Sun night.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
    
Light and variable flow is expected N of the monsoon trough Sat 
night, then the pressure gradient will tighten with fresh 
monsoonal flow from the equator to along 09N, with seas building 
from 6 to 8 ft. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak surface ridge with 1020 mb highs centered near 29N129W 
and 27N137W covers the northern forecast area and extends S to 
near 15N. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure 
associated with the monsoon trough will maintain gentle to 
moderate trades N of the monsoon trough W of 120W, with seas of 
5 to 6 ft through Fri. 
  
Fresh monsoonal flow will develop Fri morning N of the Equator 
to along 10N east of 115W, with seas building to 8-9 ft through 
Sat night. 

$$

Mundell