000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052110
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2109 UTC Tue Sep 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2045 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS...

A tropical wave is analyzed to the N of 05N along 78W and will 
continue moving W across Panama. Scattered moderate convection 
currently observed across the Gulf of Panama is forecast increase
in both coverage and intensity during the next 24 hours. 

A tropical wave is analyzed from 21N119W to 10N121W, and has 
been moving W at 15 kt over the past 24 hours. A band of 
scattered moderate convection is observed from 15N-18N and east
of the wave's axis extending from 110W-120W.

A 1010 mb surface low is embedded within the monsoon trough at 
11N130W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within the low
from 07N-12N between 127W-133W. 

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends W across the SW Caribbean along 10N 
to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 10N86W, then continues W to
18N110W to the 1010 mb low near 11N130W to beyond 11N140W. Aside
from the convection related to the tropical wave along 120W and
the low, scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm
south of the axis between 110W-120W and 130W-140W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A NW to SE orientated ridge extends into the area from 22N112W 
to 30N140W. A moderate to locally fresh NW breeze is forecast 
across the EPAC waters W of the Baja California Peninsula through
late Tue. The pressure gradient will tighten resulting in a band
of fresh to locally strong NW winds and 6 to 8 ft seas, to the N
of 29N within 60 nm of the W coast of the Baja Peninsula, with 
little change through early Thu.

Gulf of California...Light southerly winds are expected across 
the Gulf of California through early Fri, then increasing to a 
moderate breeze through the weekend.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate nocturnal northerly flow is 
expected on Wed night, and a fresh to locally strong N breeze is 
forecast on Thu night. A gap event is expected to begin on Fri 
night.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: A light offshore breeze is expected during the
overnight hours through the period. 
    
Light and variable flow is expected N of the monsoon trough 
early Fri, then the pressure gradient will tighten with fresh to 
locally strong monsoonal flow from the equator to along 08N, 
with seas building to 6 to 8 ft. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak high is centered near 27N136W, with a ridge extending SE 
to 22N112W. The pressure gradient between the high and lower 
pressure associated with the monsoon trough will maintain gentle
to moderate trades N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W, with 
seas remaining 4 to 6 ft through Friday. 
  
Fresh to locally strong monsoonal flow will develop late Fri N 
of the Equator to along 08N all to the E of 120W, with seas 
building to 6 to 8 ft. 

$$

ERA