000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051545 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Sep 05 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS... A tropical wave is analyzed to the N of 06N along 76W and will move W across Panama today. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection currently observed across the Gulf of Panama is forecast increase in both coverage and intensity. A tropical wave is analyzed from 10N120W to 19N119W, and has been moving W at 15 kt over the past 24 hours. A band of scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 90 nm either side of a line from 15N111W to 17.5N114W to 17N120W. A 1010 mb surface low is embedded within the monsoon trough at 11N129W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 210 nm over the W semicircle of the low. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W across the SW Caribbean along 09- 10N to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 10N86W, then continues W to 11N96W, then turns NW to 18N110W, then SW through a tropical wave at 15N119W through a 1010 mb surface low embedded in the monsoon trough at 11.5N129W with the monsoon trough continuing W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm either side of a line from 04N78W to 12N89W, within 180 nm either side of a line from 10.5N96.5W to 19N107W, and elsewhere within 150 nm either side of a line from 08N124W to 10N138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A NW to SE orientated ridge extends into the area from 23N116W to 20N110W. A moderate to locally fresh NW breeze is forecast across the EPAC waters W of the Baja California Peninsula through late Tue, then the pressure gradient will tighten resulting in a band of fresh to locally strong NW winds and 6 to 8 ft seas, to the N of 29N within 60 nm of the W coast of the Baja Peninsula, with little change through early Thu. Gulf of California...Light, mostly southerly winds are expected across the Gulf of California through early Fri, then the southerly flow is forecast to increase to a moderate breeze. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate nocturnal northerly flow is expected on Wed night, and a fresh to locally strong N breeze is forecast on Thu night. A significant gap event will occur on Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A light offshore breeze is expected during the overnight hours. Otherwise, light and variable flow is expected N of the monsoon trough early Fri, then the pressure gradient will tighten with fresh to locally strong monsoonal flow from the equator to along 08N with seas building to 6 to 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak high is centered near 26N140W, with a ridge extending E to beyond 20N110W. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure associated with the monsoon trough will maintain mainly gentle to moderate trades N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W, with seas remaining 4 to 6 ft through Friday. Fresh to locally strong monsoonal flow will develop late Fri N of the Equator to along 08N all to the e of 120W, with seas building to 6 to 8 ft. $$ Nelson